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| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Open Economy Macroeconomics Martín Uribe, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, 2017-04-04 A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: International Macroeconomics Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe, Michael Woodford, 2022-09-06 An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomicsBrings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic researchFollows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approachAddresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crisesUses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical modelsFeatures a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of modelsAccompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: News Shocks in Open Economies Mr.Rabah Arezki, Valerie A Ramey, Liugang Sheng, 2015-09-29 This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Closing Small Open Economy Models Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe, 2002 The small open economy model with incomplete asset markets features a steady state that depends on initial conditions and equilibrium dynamics that possess a random walk component. A number of modifications to the standard model have been proposed to induce stationarity. This paper presents a quantitative comparison of these alternative approaches. Five different specifications are considered: (1) A model with an endogenous discount factor (Uzawa-type preferences); (2) A model with a debt-elastic interest-rate premium; (3) A model with convex portfolio adjustment costs; (4) A model with complete asset markets; and (5) A model without stationarity-inducing features. The main finding of the paper is that all models deliver virtually identical dynamics at business-cycle frequencies, as measured by unconditional second moments and impulse response functions. The only noticeable difference among the alternative specifications is that the complete-asset-market model induces smoother consumption dynamics. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Open Economy Macroeconomics in Developing Countries Carlos A. Vegh, 2013-08-30 A comprehensive and rigorous text that shows how a basic open economy model can be extended to answer important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets. This rigorous and comprehensive textbook develops a basic small open economy model and shows how it can be extended to answer many important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets and developing economies, particularly those regarding monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate issues. Eschewing the complex calibrated models on which the field of international finance increasingly relies, the book teaches the reader how to think in terms of simple models and grasp the fundamentals of open economy macroeconomics. After analyzing the standard intertemporal small open economy model, the book introduces frictions such as imperfect capital markets, intertemporal distortions, and nontradable goods, into the basic model in order to shed light on the economy's response to different shocks. The book then introduces money into the model to analyze the real effects of monetary and exchange rate policy. It then applies these theoretical tools to a variety of important macroeconomic issues relevant to developing countries (and, in a world of continuing financial crisis, to industrial countries as well), including the use of a nominal interest rate as a main policy instrument, the relative merits of flexible and predetermined exchange rate regimes, and the targeting of “real anchors.” Finally, the book analyzes in detail specific topics such as inflation stabilization, “dollarization,” balance of payments crises, and, inspired by recent events, financial crises. Each chapter includes boxes with relevant empirical evidence and ends with exercises. The book is suitable for use in graduate courses in development economics, international finance, and macroeconomics. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Capital Control Measures Andrés Fernández, Mr.Michael W. Klein, Mr.Alessandro Rebucci, Mr.Martin Schindler, Martin Uribe, 2015-04-22 This paper presents a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data in Schindler (2009) and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), this dataset includes additional asset categories, more countries, and a longer time period. The paper discusses in detail the construction of the dataset and characterizes the data with respect to the prevalence and correlation of controls across asset categories and between controls on inflows and controls on outflows, the aggregation of the separate categories into broader indicators, and the comparison of this dataset with other indicators of capital controls. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle Jordi Galí, 2015-06-09 The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles Vivian Z. Yue, Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2011-07-01 Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate Mr.Santanu Chatterjee, Mr.Azer Mursagulov, 2012-02-01 Government spending on infrastructure has recently increased sharply in many emerging-market economies. This paper examines the mechanism through which public infrastructure spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral adjustment costs, we show that government spending generates a non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the intensity of private capital in production, and (iv) the relative productivity of public infrastructure. In deriving these results, the model also identifies conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities, namely the intertemporal relationship between government spending, private consumption, and the real exchange rate. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: The Spanish Economy J. Boscá, R. Doménech, J. Ferri, J. Varela, 2011-05-26 This book examines the pattern of growth of the Spanish economy in the last few decades, and studies the causes of its labour productivity, and the special features characterising business cycles in Spain. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy John Y. Campbell, 2008-11-15 Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Edward P. Herbst, Frank Schorfheide, 2015-12-29 Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti Ioana Moldovan, Mrs.Marina V Rousset, Chris Walker, 2018-09-11 A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Giovanni Ganelli, Philip R. Lane, 2002 |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Economic Forecasting Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann, 2016-04-05 A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Principles of International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics Cristina Terra, 2015-06-09 Principles of International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics: Theories, Applications, and Policies presents a macroeconomic framework for understanding and analyzing the global economy from the perspectives of emerging economies and developing countries. Unlike most macroeconomic textbooks, which typically emphasize issues about developed countries while downplaying issues related to developing countries, this book emphasizes problems in emerging economies, including those in Latin American countries. It also explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis. - Concentrates on developing country perspectives on International Finance and the Economy, including those in Latin American countries - Provides case studies and publicly available data allowing readers to explore theories and their applications - Explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis - Proposes a unified mathematical model accessible to those with basic mathematical skills |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets Mr.F. Gulcin Ozkan, Ms.Filiz Unsal, 2012-12-13 The recent global financial crisis was the first in recent history that was triggered by problems in the financial system of the mature economies. Existing work on financial crisis in emerging market countries, however, almost exclusively focus on the role of financial frictions in the domestic economy. In contrast, we propose a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis that originates from financial frictions in the rest of the world. We find that the scale of financial spillovers from the global to the domestic economy and trade openness are key determinants of the severity of the financial crisis for the domestic economy. Our results also suggest that the welfare ranking of alternative monetary policy regimes is determined by the degree of financial contagion, the degree of trade openness as well as the scale of foreign currency denominated debt in the domestic economy. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Robustness Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent, 2016-06-28 The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka Chandranath Amarasekara, Rahul Anand, Kithsiri Ehelepola, Hemantha Ekanayake, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema, Sujeetha Jegajeevan, Csaba Kober, Tharindi Nugawela, Sergey Plotnikov, Adam Remo, Poongothai Venuganan, Rasika Yatigammana, 2018-06-25 This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management Mr.Cristiano Cantore, Mr.Paul L Levine, Mr.Giovanni Melina, Joseph G Pearlman, 2017-03-30 The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Investing in Public Infrastructure Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li, Ricardo Marto, Mr.Giovanni Melina, 2017-05-04 Why do governments in developing economies invest in roads and not enough in schools? In the presence of distortionary taxation and debt aversion, the different pace at which roads and schools contribute to economic growth turns out to be central to this decision. Specifically, while costs are front-loaded for both types of investment, the growth benefits of schools accrue with a delay. To put things in perspective, with a “big push,” even assuming a large (15 percent) return differential in favor of schools, the government would still limit the fraction of the investment scale-up going to schools to about a half. Besides debt aversion, political myopia also turns out to be a crucial determinant of public investment composition. A “big push,” by accelerating growth outcomes, mitigates myopia—but at the expense of greater risks to fiscal and debt sustainability. Tied concessional financing and grants can potentially mitigate the adverse effects of both debt aversion and political myopia. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Macroeconomic Policy Games Arno Riedl, Georg Winckler, Andreas Wörgötter, 2014-04-15 Subject and purpose of the book is the investigation of economic policy issues with the help of non-cooperative game theory. The most important feature of our work is to look at the possible strategic interactions between various economic agents and/or institutions. We are also investigating the potential effects on efficiency and welfare if agents act in a strategic way. The method of non-cooperative game theory leads in general to results which differ from that derived in using traditional economic theory. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis, 2024-08-06 How to use nonlinear dynamic models in policy analysis. Policymakers need quantitative as well as qualitative answers to pressing policy questions. Because of advances in computational methods, quantitative estimates are now derived from coherent nonlinear dynamic macroeconomic models embodying measures of risk and calibrated to capture specific characteristics of real-world situations. This text shows how such models can be made accessible and operational for confronting policy issues. The book starts with a simple setting based on market-clearing price flexibility. It gradually incorporates departures from the simple competitive framework in the form of price and wage stickiness, taxes, rigidities in investment, financial frictions, and habit persistence in consumption. Most chapters end with computational exercises; the Matlab code for the base model can be found in the appendix. As the models evolve, readers are encouraged to modify the codes from the first simple model to more complex extensions. Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy can be used by graduate students in economics and finance as well as policy-oriented researchers. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: The Physics of Wall Street James Owen Weatherall, 2013-01-08 A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Introduction to Modern Economic Growth Daron Acemoglu, 2008-12-15 From Nobel Prize–winning economist Daron Acemoglu, an incisive introduction to economic growth Introduction to Modern Economic Growth is a groundbreaking text from one of today's leading economists. Daron Acemoglu gives graduate students not only the tools to analyze growth and related macroeconomic problems, but also the broad perspective needed to apply those tools to the big-picture questions of growth and divergence. And he introduces the economic and mathematical foundations of modern growth theory and macroeconomics in a rigorous but easy to follow manner. After covering the necessary background on dynamic general equilibrium and dynamic optimization, the book presents the basic workhorse models of growth and takes students to the frontier areas of growth theory, including models of human capital, endogenous technological change, technology transfer, international trade, economic development, and political economy. The book integrates these theories with data and shows how theoretical approaches can lead to better perspectives on the fundamental causes of economic growth and the wealth of nations. Innovative and authoritative, this book is likely to shape how economic growth is taught and learned for years to come. Introduces all the foundations for understanding economic growth and dynamic macroeconomic analysis Focuses on the big-picture questions of economic growth Provides mathematical foundations Presents dynamic general equilibrium Covers models such as basic Solow, neoclassical growth, and overlapping generations, as well as models of endogenous technology and international linkages Addresses frontier research areas such as international linkages, international trade, political economy, and economic development and structural change An accompanying Student Solutions Manual containing the answers to selected exercises is available (978-0-691-14163-3/$24.95). See: https://press.princeton.edu/titles/8970.html For Professors only: To access a complete solutions manual online, email us at: acemoglusolutions@press.princeton.edu |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-order Approximation to the Policy Function Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martin Uribe, 2001 This paper derives a second-order approximation to the solution of a general class of discrete- time rational expectations models. The main theoretical contribution of the paper is to show that for any model belonging to the general class considered, the coefficients on the terms linear and quadratic in the state vector in a second-order expansion of the decision rule are independent of the volatility of the exogenous shocks. In other words, these coefficients must be the same in the stochastic and the deterministic versions of the model. Thus, up to second order, the presence of uncertainty affects only the constant term of the decision rules. In addition, the paper presents a set of MATLAB programs designed to compute the coefficients of the second-order approximation. The validity and applicability of the proposed method is illustrated by solving the dynamics of a number of model economies. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: External Imbalances in the Euro Area Ms.Ruo Chen, Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti, Mr.Thierry Tressel, 2012-10-09 The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the rising imbalances are correct, but are incomplete. We uncover a large impact of declines in export competitiveness and asymmetric trade developments vis-à-vis the rest of the world –in particular vis-à-vis China, Central and Eastern Europe, and oil exporters- on the external balance of euro area debtor countries. While current account imbalances of euro area deficit countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world increased, they were financed mostly by intra-euro area capital inflows (in particular by the purchase of government and financial institutions’ securities, and cross-border interbank lending) which permitted external imbalances to grow over time. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Dynamic Macroeconomics George Alogoskoufis, 2019-12-17 An advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic equilibrium models, with discussion of the implications for monetary and fiscal policy. This textbook offers an advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic general equilibrium models based on intertemporal optimization on the part of economic agents. The book treats macroeconomics as applied and policy-oriented general equilibrium analysis, examining a number of models, each of which is suitable for investigating specific issues but may be unsuitable for others. After presenting a brief survey of the evolution of macroeconomics and the key facts about long-run economic growth and aggregate fluctuations, the book introduces the main elements of the intertemporal approach through a series of two-period competitive general equilibrium models—the simplest possible intertemporal models. This sets the stage for the remainder of the book, which presents models of economic growth, aggregate fluctuations, and monetary and fiscal policy. The text focuses on a full analysis of a limited number of key intertemporal models, which are stripped down to essentials so that students can focus on the dynamic properties of the models. Exercises encourage students to try their hands at solving versions of the dynamic models that define modern macroeconomics. Appendixes review the main mathematical techniques needed to analyze optimizing dynamic macroeconomic models. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who have some knowledge of economic theory and mathematics for economists. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007 |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Handbook of Monetary Economics , 1990 |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy Jasmin Sin, 2016-09-07 This paper studies the fiscal multiplier using a small-open-economy DSGE model enriched with financial frictions. It shows that the multiplier is large when frictions are present in domestic and international financial markets. The reason is that in the model government bonds are more liquid than private financial assets and that entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints. A bond-financed fiscal expansion eases these constraints and stimulates investment and hence growth. This mechanism, however, breaks down under the assumption of perfect international capital mobility, suggesting that conventional models which ignore the presence of frictions in international capital markets tend to underestimate the fiscal multiplier. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Handbook of Macroeconomics John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, Harald Uhlig, 1999-12-13 This text aims to provide a survey of the state of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consequences of monetary and fiscal policies for general economic conditions. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Politically Optimal Fiscal Policy Michael Kumhof, Irina Yakadina, 2007-03 Why do governments issue large amounts of debt? In what sense and for whom is such a policy optimal? We show that twisting the optimal taxation paradigm produces very reasonable predictions for debt and real interest rates. Adding an extra dimension of uncertainty about the political planning horizon gives rise to a positive and very plausible government debt-to-GDP ratio of about 55 percent in a model that otherwise predicts negative government debt. We quantify the impact of political uncertainty on steady state and business cycle dynamics. We illustrate how populist tax cuts can cause business cycle fluctuations. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 Richard H. Clarida, Francesco Giavazzi, 2011 Leading American and European economists discuss monetary and fiscal policy from a global macroeconomic perspective and analyze the implications of European integration; cutting-edge research presented in a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Recursive Macroeconomic Theory Thomas J. Sargent, 2016-09-15 Recursive methods offer a powerful approach for characterizing and solving complicated problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Recursive Macroeconomic Theory provides both an introduction to recursive methods and advanced material, mixing tools and sample applications. The second edition contains substantial revisions to about half the original material, and extensive additional coverage appears in seven chapters new to this edition. The updated and added material covers exciting new topics that further illustrate the power and pervasiveness of recursive methods.Significant improvements to original chapters include a better treatment of the existence of recursive equilibria, an enhanced account of the supermartingale convergence theorem, and an extended treatment of an optimal taxation problem in an economy in which there are incomplete markets. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: Open Economy Macrodynamics Toichiro Asada, Carl Chiarella, Peter Flaschel, Reiner Franke, 2012-11-10 In the first part of this book, we treat interacting and small open economies. We do this from an historical perspective, starting from the Classical model of the gold standard and the specie-flow mechanism and aim to show there that the Dornbusch IS-LM-PC approach, with or without rational expectations, can still be considered as a (if not the) core contribution to contemporaneous open economy macrodynamics, also on the level of structural macroeconometric model building. In the second part we then extend this analysis to the incorporation of more disequilibrium on the real markets, prominent further feedback channels of the macrodynamic literature and integrated macromodel building. We start from the closed economy, consider large open economies in a fixed exchange rate system, small open economies subject to high capital mobility, and finally two large interacting economies like the USA and Euroland. Our macrofounded approach extends and integrates non-market clearing traditions to macrodynamics and can be usefully compared with the New Keynesian approaches which are generally rigorously microfounded, but often much more limited in scope in capturing full market and agent interactions. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: The Limits of Fiscal Policy Anthony J. Makin, 2018-05-24 This book presents alternative macroeconomic perspectives, primarily open economy, on the limitations of discretionary fiscal policy, with a focus on government spending. Following an overview on the post-crisis Keynesian revival and of the macro-foundations needed for subsequent analysis, different perspectives are expounded that highlight the failings of fiscal activism. These perspectives include extended loanable funds analysis, an expenditure-output related model incorporating money and exchange rates, and a dependent economy framework. The approaches are used to examine investment and net export crowding out effects and their implications for national income, and are then adapted to show the macroeconomic impact of different fiscal consolidation measures, revealing that the nature of fiscal repair is critical. A concluding chapter evaluates the nexus between budgetary policy and confidence, summarises the key failings of fiscal activism, and suggests fiscal policy goals. The book will appeal to university lecturers and researchers in macroeconomics and economists working in government and the private sector. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 Mark Gertler, Kenneth Rogoff, 2005 The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers addressed to a broad audience of public policymakers as well as to the academic community. Each paper is followed by comments and discussion to give a more complete context for the views expressed. The 2004 edition features a range of papers aimed at providing coherent and informative answers to such important questions as the effect of federal government debt on interest rates; the stochastic dimension of the American economy; the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations; and the interaction of capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policies in developing countries, emerging markets, and OECD countries. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Willem H. Buiter, 1999 It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equilibrium. This economic misspecification has implications for the mathematical or logical properties of the equilibria supported by models purporting to demonstrate the properties of the fiscal approach. These include: overdetermined (internally inconsistent) equilibria; anomalies like the apparent ability to price things that do not exist; the need for arbitrary restrictions on the exogenous and predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences, including behaviour that will ultimately violate physical resource constraints. The issue is of more than academic interest. Policy conclusions could be drawn from the fiscal theory of the price level that would be harmful if they influenced the actual behaviour of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The fiscal theory of the price level implies that a government could exogenously fix its real spending, revenue and seigniorage plans, and that the general price level would adjust the real value of its contractual nominal debt obligations so as to ensure government solvency. When reality dawns, the result could be painful fiscal tightening, government default, or unplanned recourse to the inflation tax. |
| uribe schmitt grohe open economy macroeconomics: A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework Tobias Adrian, 2020 |
Colombian politician Miguel Uribe critically wounded in …
Jun 9, 2025 · Colombian conservative presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe is in critical condition after being shot in the head during an assassination attempt over the weekend.
Álvaro Uribe - Wikipedia
Álvaro Uribe Vélez CYC (born 4 July 1952) is a Colombian politician who served as the 31st President of Colombia from 7 August 2002 to 7 August 2010. [1] [2] Uribe started his political …
Colombian presidential candidate recovering from surgery after ...
Jun 8, 2025 · Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay, a possible right-wing candidate in the country's presidential election next year, is recovering after successfully undergoing surgery …
Miguel Uribe Turbay: Colombian presidential hopeful still in critical ...
Jun 9, 2025 · Miguel Uribe Turbay, a member of the opposition right-wing Democratic Center Party, was shot in the head during a campaign event at a public park in the Fontibon …
Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay was addressing a crowd, when …
Jun 8, 2025 · A Colombian right-wing opposition senator and candidate for next year's presidential election, Miguel Uribe Turbay, 39, was shot and wounded in Bogota on June 7, 2025. RAUL …
Colombian president vows to hunt ‘mastermind’ behind shooting …
Jun 8, 2025 · Colombian senator Miguel Uribe, in the running to join next year’s presidential race, is in a critical condition in hospital after being shot at an event in Bogota, allegedly by a teenager.
Colombia presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shot: What to …
Jun 8, 2025 · Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, who is seeking to run in the 2026 presidential election, was shot from behind at a campaign rally about 5pm [22:00 GMT] at El Golfito Park in …
Who is Miguel Uribe? Colombian presidential candidate shot …
Jun 8, 2025 · Uribe is married to Claudia Tarazona, and the two tied the knot in 2016. He is the son of Diana Turbay and the grandson of Julio César Turbay Ayala. Diana was a Colombian …
Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay in serious condition after …
Jun 8, 2025 · BOGOTA -- BOGOTA (AP) — Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay, a conservative presidential hopeful, was in serious condition Sunday following surgery for a gunshot wound at …
‘March of Silence’ following attack on Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay
2 days ago · Senator Uribe Turbay, a 39-year-old member of the right-wing Centro Democráctico party, was critically injured in an armed attack on Jun. 7. Just days later, a coordinated terrorist …
Colombian politician Miguel Uribe critically wounded in …
Jun 9, 2025 · Colombian conservative presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe is in critical condition after being shot in the head during an assassination attempt over the weekend.
Álvaro Uribe - Wikipedia
Álvaro Uribe Vélez CYC (born 4 July 1952) is a Colombian politician who served as the 31st President of Colombia from 7 August 2002 to 7 August 2010. [1] [2] Uribe started his political …
Colombian presidential candidate recovering from surgery after ...
Jun 8, 2025 · Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay, a possible right-wing candidate in the country's presidential election next year, is recovering after successfully undergoing surgery …
Miguel Uribe Turbay: Colombian presidential hopeful still in …
Jun 9, 2025 · Miguel Uribe Turbay, a member of the opposition right-wing Democratic Center Party, was shot in the head during a campaign event at a public park in the Fontibon …
Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay was addressing a crowd, when shots …
Jun 8, 2025 · A Colombian right-wing opposition senator and candidate for next year's presidential election, Miguel Uribe Turbay, 39, was shot and wounded in Bogota on June 7, 2025. RAUL …
Colombian president vows to hunt ‘mastermind’ behind shooting …
Jun 8, 2025 · Colombian senator Miguel Uribe, in the running to join next year’s presidential race, is in a critical condition in hospital after being shot at an event in Bogota, allegedly by a teenager.
Colombia presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shot: What to …
Jun 8, 2025 · Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, who is seeking to run in the 2026 presidential election, was shot from behind at a campaign rally about 5pm [22:00 GMT] at El Golfito Park in …
Who is Miguel Uribe? Colombian presidential candidate shot …
Jun 8, 2025 · Uribe is married to Claudia Tarazona, and the two tied the knot in 2016. He is the son of Diana Turbay and the grandson of Julio César Turbay Ayala. Diana was a Colombian …
Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay in serious condition after …
Jun 8, 2025 · BOGOTA -- BOGOTA (AP) — Colombian Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay, a conservative presidential hopeful, was in serious condition Sunday following surgery for a gunshot wound at …
‘March of Silence’ following attack on Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay
2 days ago · Senator Uribe Turbay, a 39-year-old member of the right-wing Centro Democráctico party, was critically injured in an armed attack on Jun. 7. Just days later, a coordinated terrorist …
