The Essential Herman Kahn In Defense Of Thinking

  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Essential Herman Kahn Herman Kahn, 2009-01-01 The Essential Herman Kahn offers the public for the first time an anthology consisting of the best of Herman Kahn's work. It brings together, out of the several thousands of pages published in his life, the essential Kahn-the most relevant, consequential, and interesting themes, ideas, and arguments of his work in areas such as international relations, public policy, environmentalism, strategic thinking, and futurology.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Soldiers of Reason Alex Abella, 2009-05-04 An “entertaining and fast-paced” account of the organization that defines the military-industrial complex—and continues to shape our world today (The New York Times Book Review). The RAND Corporation was born in the wake of World War II as a think tank to generate research and analysis for the United States military. It was a magnet for the best and the brightest—and also the most dangerous. RAND quickly became the creator of America’s anti-Soviet nuclear strategy, attracting such Cold War luminaries as Albert Wohlstetter, Bernard Brodie, and Herman Kahn, who arguably saved us from nuclear annihilation—and unquestionably created the military-industrial complex Eisenhower warned against. In the Kennedy era, RAND analysts and their theories of rational warfare steered our conduct in Vietnam. Those same theories drove our invasion of Iraq forty-five years later, championed by RAND affiliated actors such as Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, and Zalmay Khalilzad. But RAND’s greatest contribution might be its least known: rational choice theory, a model explaining all human behavior through self-interest. Through it RAND sparked the Reagan-led transformation of our social and economic system, but also unleashed a resurgence of precisely the forces whose existence it denied: religion, patriotism, tribalism. With Soldiers of Reason, Alex Abella shares a “well-researched” history of America’s last half century that casts a new light on our problematic present (San Francisco Chronicle).
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Second Nuclear Age Paul Bracken, 2012-11-13 A leading international security strategist offers a compelling new way to think about the unthinkable. The cold war ended more than two decades ago, and with its end came a reduction in the threat of nuclear weapons—a luxury that we can no longer indulge. It's not just the threat of Iran getting the bomb or North Korea doing something rash; the whole complexion of global power politics is changing because of the reemergence of nuclear weapons as a vital element of statecraft and power politics. In short, we have entered the second nuclear age. In this provocative and agenda-setting book, Paul Bracken of Yale University argues that we need to pay renewed attention to nuclear weapons and how their presence will transform the way crises develop and escalate. He draws on his years of experience analyzing defense strategy to make the case that the United States needs to start thinking seriously about these issues once again, especially as new countries acquire nuclear capabilities. He walks us through war-game scenarios that are all too realistic, to show how nuclear weapons are changing the calculus of power politics, and he offers an incisive tour of the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia to underscore how the United States must not allow itself to be unprepared for managing such crises. Frank in its tone and farsighted in its analysis, The Second Nuclear Age is the essential guide to the new rules of international politics.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash, 2022-04-15 In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Counsels of War Gregg Herken, 2015-02-18 Since the first atomic bomb was exploded in 1945, a close community of civilian experts, including scientists, academics, and think-tank intellectuals, has advised the American government on the prospects of nuclear war. Based on interviews with these experts, as well as hundreds of pages of recently declassified documents, Counsels of War is the first book to trace in detail the deliberations and shifting recommendations of the experts on the bomb from Hiroshima to Star Wars. Gregg Herken writes about the people whose profession it has been to think about the unthinkable—Robert McNamara, Paul Nitze, Herman Kahn, Bernard Brodie—including their intense rivalries, personal animosities, and often contentious relationship with the professional military. He reveals how the influence of the scientist and strategist has extended well beyond the laboratory and the classroom—in the proposal of Kennedy's advisers for a nuclear demonstration and even a clever first-strike against the Russians, for example. Counsels of War also shatters certain popular assumptions about U.S. nuclear policy. As Herken points out, while American doctrine stresses retaliation, U.S. strategists have always planned to pre-empt a Soviet attack. Herken shows that the lines in the current nuclear debate were actually drawn at the dawn of the atomic age, and that the experts' technically abstruse arguments have only served to hide from the public the fundamental, deeply held—and quite subjective—differences at the heart of the debate. Since Hiroshima, there has been a growing awareness of the peril created by nuclear weapons, yet the crucial questions that were never adequately addressed in 1945 unanswered today. Given the inability of the experts to confront the essential dilemma of the nuclear age, Counsels of War calls for a new nuclear debate, one focused on American rather than Soviet intentions and that seeks an answer to the fundamental, yet still unresolved question: What are these weapons for?
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Unthinkable Kenneth Pollack, 2014-09-30 Examines Iran's current nuclear potential while charting America's future course of action, recounting the prolonged clash between both nations to outline options for American policymakers.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: World Economic Development Herman Kahn, 2019-09-11 This book examines the prospects for world economic development. It focuses primarily on the period from 1978 to 2000 and pays particular attention to the earlier part of that interval. The book examines some of the more immediate problems and issues associated with the process of economic growth.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Conservative Futurist James Pethokoukis, 2023-10-03 Discover the surprising case for how conservatism can help us achieve the epic sci-fi future we were promised. America was once the world’s dream factory. We turned imagination into reality, from curing polio to landing on the Moon to creating the internet. And we were confident that more wonders lay just over the horizon: clean and infinite energy, a cure for cancer, computers and robots as humanity’s great helpers, and space colonies. (Also, of course, flying cars.) Science fiction, from The Jetsons to Star Trek, would become fact. But as we moved into the late 20th century, we grew cautious, even cynical, about what the future held and our ability to shape it. Too many of us saw only the threats from rapid change. The year 2023 marks the 50th anniversary of the start of the Great Downshift in technological progress and economic growth, followed by decades of economic stagnation, downsized dreams, and a popular culture fixated on catastrophe: AI that will take all our jobs if it doesn’t kill us first, nuclear war, climate chaos, plague and the zombie apocalypse. We are now at risk of another half-century of making the same mistakes and pushing a pro-progress future into the realm of impossibility. But American Enterprise Institute (AEI) economic policy expert and long-time CNBC contributor James Pethokoukis argues that there’s still hope. We can absolutely turn things around—if we the people choose to dream and act. How dare we delay or fail to deliver for ourselves and our children. With groundbreaking ideas and sharp analysis, Pethokoukis provides a detailed roadmap to a fantastic future filled with incredible progress and prosperity that is both optimistic and realistic. Through an exploration of culture, economics, and history, The Conservative Futurist tells the fascinating story of what went wrong in the past and what we need to do today to finally get it right. Using the latest economic research and policy analysis, as well as insights from top economists, historians, and technologists, Pethokoukis reveals that the failed futuristic visions of the past were totally possible. And they still are. If America is to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, take full advantage of emerging tech from generative AI to CRISPR to reusable rockets, and launch itself into a shining tomorrow, it must again become a fully risk-taking, future-oriented society. It’s time for America to embrace the future confidently, act boldly, and take that giant leap forward.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Thinking about the Unthinkable Herman Kahn, 1968
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Research Handbook on Civil–Military Relations Aurel Croissant, David Kuehn, David Pion-Berlin, 2024-04-12 Bringing together leading scholars from across the world, this comprehensive Research Handbook analyses key problems, subjects, regions, and countries in civil-military relations. Showcasing cutting-edge research developments, it illustrates the deeply complex nature of the field and analyses important topics in need of renewed consideration.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Kubrick Legacy Mick Broderick, 2019-02-21 The six chapters assembled in The Kubrick Legacy showcase important trends in the evolution of filmmaker Stanley Kubrick’s artistic legacy. In the 20 years since his death an enormous range of information and scholarship has surfaced, in part from the Kubrick estate’s public preservation, archiving, exhibition and promulgation of the auteur’s staggering collection of research materials and film artefacts. These essays from international scholars chart incarnations of the official Kubrick exhibition of extensive artifacts touring the globe for the past decade; the filmmaker’s lasting impact on established authors with whom he collaborated; the profound influence of Kubrick’s use of existing music in film scores; the exponential rise of conspiracy theories and (mis)interpretation of his work since his death; the repeated imitation of and homage to his oeuvre across decades of international television advertising; and the (re)discovery of Kubrick on screen in both documentary form and dramatic characterization. The Kubrick Legacy provides a tantalizing, critical snapshot of the enduring impact and influence of one of the twentieth century’s most enigmatic and consummate screen artists.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: World Politics at the Edge of Chaos Emilian Kavalski, 2015-04-15 Why are policymakers, scholars, and the general public so surprised when the world turns out to be unpredictable? World Politics at the Edge of Chaos suggests that the study of international politics needs new forms of knowledge to respond to emerging challenges such as the interconnectedness between local and transnational realities; between markets, migration, and social movements; and between pandemics, a looming energy crisis, and climate change. Asserting that Complexity Thinking (CT) provides a much-needed lens for interpreting these challenges, the contributors offer a parallel assessment of the impact of CT to anthropocentric and non-anthropocentric (post-human) International Relations. Using this perspective, the result should be less surprise when confronting the dynamism of a fragile and unpredictable global life. This book is freely available in an open access edition thanks to Knowledge Unlatched—an initiative that provides libraries and institutions with a centralized platform to support OA collections and from leading publishing houses and OA initiatives. Learn more at the Knowledge Unlatched website at: https://www.knowledgeunlatched.org/, and access the book online at the SUNY Open Access Repository at http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12648/7129.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Playing with Reality Kelly Clancy, 2024-06-18 A wide-ranging intellectual history that reveals how important games have been to human progress, and what’s at stake when we forget what games we’re really playing. We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment, weaving an unexpected path through military theory, political science, evolutionary biology, the development of computers and AI, cutting-edge neuroscience, and cognitive psychology. Neuroscientist and physicist Kelly Clancy shows how intertwined games have been with the arc of history. War games shaped the outcomes of real wars in nineteenth and twentieth century Europe. Game theory warped our understanding of human behavior and brought us to the brink of annihilation—yet still underlies basic assumptions in economics, politics, and technology design. We used games to teach computers how to learn for themselves, and now we are designing games that will determine the shape of society and future of democracy. In this revelatory new work, Clancy makes the bold argument that the human fascination with games is the key to understanding our nature and our actions.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Constructing Cassandra Milo Jones, Philippe Silberzahn, 2013-08-21 Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Doomsday Machine Daniel Ellsberg, 2017-12-05 Shortlisted for the Andrew Carnegie Medal for Excellence in Nonfiction Finalist for The California Book Award in Nonfiction The San Francisco Chronicle's Best of the Year List Foreign Affairs Best Books of the Year In These Times “Best Books of the Year Huffington Post's Ten Excellent December Books List LitHub's “Five Books Making News This Week” From the legendary whistle-blower who revealed the Pentagon Papers, an eyewitness exposé of the dangers of America's Top Secret, seventy-year-long nuclear policy that continues to this day. Here, for the first time, former high-level defense analyst Daniel Ellsberg reveals his shocking firsthand account of America's nuclear program in the 1960s. From the remotest air bases in the Pacific Command, where he discovered that the authority to initiate use of nuclear weapons was widely delegated, to the secret plans for general nuclear war under Eisenhower, which, if executed, would cause the near-extinction of humanity, Ellsberg shows that the legacy of this most dangerous arms buildup in the history of civilization--and its proposed renewal under the Trump administration--threatens our very survival. No other insider with high-level access has written so candidly of the nuclear strategy of the late Eisenhower and early Kennedy years, and nothing has fundamentally changed since that era. Framed as a memoir--a chronicle of madness in which Ellsberg acknowledges participating--this gripping exposé reads like a thriller and offers feasible steps we can take to dismantle the existing doomsday machine and avoid nuclear catastrophe, returning Ellsberg to his role as whistle-blower. The Doomsday Machine is thus a real-life Dr. Strangelove story and an ultimately hopeful--and powerfully important--book about not just our country, but the future of the world.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: American Arsenal Patrick Coffey, 2014-03 American Arsenal examines the United States' transformation from isolationist state to military superpower by means of sixteen vignettes, each focusing upon an inventor and his contribution to the cause.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Photography and the Art of Chance Robin Kelsey, 2015-05-26 As anyone who has wielded a camera knows, photography has a unique relationship to chance. It also represents a struggle to reconcile aesthetic aspiration with a mechanical process. Robin Kelsey reveals how daring innovators expanded the aesthetic limits of photography in order to create art for a modern world.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Essential Chomsky Noam Chomsky, 2011-05-10 The seminal writings of America’s leading philosopher, linguist, and political thinker—“the foremost gadfly of our national conscience” (The New York Times). For the past fifty years Noam Chomsky’s writings on politics and language have established him as a preeminent public intellectual as well as one of the most original political and social critics of our time. Among the seminal figures in linguistic theory over the past century, Chomsky has also secured a place among the most influential dissident voice in the United States. Chomsky’s many bestselling works—including Manufacturing Consent, Hegemony or Survival, Understanding Power, and Failed States—have served as essential touchstones for activists, scholars, and concerned citizens on subjects ranging from the media and intellectual freedom to human rights and war crimes. In particular, Chomsky’s scathing critique of the US wars in Vietnam, Central America, and the Middle East have furnished a widely accepted intellectual premise for antiwar movements for nearly four decades. The Essential Chomsky assembles the core of his most important writings, including excerpts from his most influential texts over the past half century. Here is an unprecedented, comprehensive overview of the thought that animates “one of the West’s most influential intellectuals in the cause of peace” (The Independent). “Chomsky ranks with Marx, Shakespeare, and the Bible as one of the ten most quoted sources in the humanities—and is the only writer among them still alive.” —The Guardian “Noam Chomsky is one of the most significant challengers of unjust power and delusions; he goes against every assumption about American altruism and humanitarianism.” —Edward Said “A rebel without a pause.” —Bono
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Realist Tradition in International Relations Barry Scott Zellen, 2011-08-19 This comprehensive foundation for the study of realism will introduce students in disciplines as varied as philosophy, international relations, and strategic studies to the majestic breadth of the realist tradition that unifies them all. The Realist Tradition in International Relations: The Foundations of Western Order introduces the principal theorists who have shaped and defined the realist tradition. This once-dominant theory of international politics has reemerged to provide a shared foundation for understanding political theory, international relations theory, and strategic studies. The work is comprised of four volumes, each focusing upon a distinct period and the pivotal contributors writing in that era. Volume 1, State of Hope, looks at the classical era when chaos reigned supreme. Volume 2, State of Fear, goes through the early-modern period and the emergence of the modern state. Volume 3, State of Awe, explores the age of total war with its unprecedented dangers. Volume 4, State of Siege, examines the present era of insurgency and asymmetrical conflict. A truly monumental work, this sweeping study will surely foster a new appreciation of the rich tapestry of realist thought and its continuing relevance to the study of world politics.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Culture in Law and Development Lan Cao, 2016 The growth of international law in the post-World War II era stemmed partly from the belief that universal norms would make life for the entire world's population safer, more equitable, and more conducive to each person's acquisition of basic material needs. Starting in the sixties and seventies, some scholars and activists challenged this assumption and established the school of cultural relativism, a model that pays deference to local cultural traditions and favors them over international human rights norms. Scholars tried to create and practice a middle-ground approach between universalism and relativism, whereby the most egregious violations would be prevented through assimilating only jus cogens norms into indigenous groups' existing cultural traditions. Such efforts at combining a few select international norms with local cultural traditions largely failed. Culture in Law and Development presents a provocative new solution to the seemingly intractable problem of combining international norms with local cultural traditions by changing culture through law and development. In this book, Lan Cao demonstrates how the gradual expansion of customary international law (CIL) provides a model for changing culture in ways that protect and advance local populations. The book adopts a holistic view of development and argues that cultural norms that impede the human capabilities of the poor, women, and other marginal groups should be changed. The book reveals how a more conscious, coordinated effort on such change can succeed while non-violative local traditions are otherwise honored and preserved. Cao proposes that cultural change does not have to constitute cultural disrespect, and that local societies only benefit by a careful combination of externally wrought change and internally fostered tradition.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: On Thermonuclear War Herman Kahn, 1966
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Rational Action William Thomas, 2015-04-10 The evolution of a set of fields—including operations research and systems analysis—intended to improve policymaking and explore the nature of rational decision-making. During World War II, the Allied military forces faced severe problems integrating equipment, tactics, and logistics into successful combat operations. To help confront these problems, scientists and engineers developed new means of studying which equipment designs would best meet the military's requirements and how the military could best use the equipment it had on hand. By 1941 they had also begun to gather and analyze data from combat operations to improve military leaders' ordinary planning activities. In Rational Action, William Thomas details these developments, and how they gave rise during the 1950s to a constellation of influential new fields—which he terms the “sciences of policy”—that included operations research, management science, systems analysis, and decision theory. Proponents of these new sciences embraced a variety of agendas. Some aimed to improve policymaking directly, while others theorized about how one decision could be considered more rational than another. Their work spanned systems engineering, applied mathematics, nuclear strategy, and the philosophy of science, and it found new niches in universities, in businesses, and at think tanks such as the RAND Corporation. The sciences of policy also took a prominent place in epic narratives told about the relationships among science, state, and society in an intellectual culture preoccupied with how technology and reason would shape the future. Thomas follows all these threads to illuminate and make new sense of the intricate relationships among scientific analysis, policymaking procedure, and institutional legitimacy at a crucial moment in British and American history.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Five Myths about Nuclear Weapons Ward Wilson, 2013 Expanded from an article that created a stir in foreign policy circles, this book shows why five central arguments promoting nuclear weapons are, in essence, myths.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Spec Ops William H. McRaven, 1996-06-01 Vice Adm. William H. McRaven helped to devise the strategy for how to bring down Osama bin Laden, and commanded the courageous U.S. military unit that carried it out on May 1, 2011, ending one of the greatest manhunts in history. In Spec Ops, a well-organized and deeply researched study, McRaven analyzes eight classic special operations. Six are from WWII: the German commando raid on the Belgian fort Eben Emael (1940); the Italian torpedo attack on the Alexandria harbor (1941); the British commando raid on Nazaire, France (1942); the German glider rescue of Benito Mussolini (1943); the British midget-submarine attack on the Tirpitz (1943); and the U.S. Ranger rescue mission at the Cabanatuan POW camp in the Philippines (1945). The two post-WWII examples are the U.S. Army raid on the Son Tay POW camp in North Vietnam (1970) and the Israeli rescue of the skyjacked hostages in Entebbe, Uganda (1976). McRaven—who commands a U.S. Navy SEAL team—pinpoints six essential principles of “spec ops” success: simplicity, security, repetition, surprise, speed and purpose. For each of the case studies, he provides political and military context, a meticulous reconstruction of the mission itself and an analysis of the operation in relation to his six principles. McRaven deems the Son Tay raid “the best modern example of a successful spec op [which] should be considered textbook material for future missions.” His own book is an instructive textbook that will be closely studied by students of the military arts. Maps, photos.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Getting MAD Henry D. Sokolski, 2004 Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and analysts, this volume examines how MAD and its emphasis on the military targeting of population centers influenced the operational plans of the major nuclear powers and states, such as Pakistan, India, and Israel. Given America's efforts to move away from MAD and the continued reliance on MAD thinking by smaller nations to help justify further nuclear proliferation, Getting MAD is a timely must read for anyone eager to understand our nuclear past and future.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Report from Iron Mountain on the Possibility and Desirability of Peace Special Study Group, 1967
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Thinking about Deterrence Air Univeristy Press, 2014-09-01 With many scholars and analysts questioning the relevance of deterrence as a valid strategic concept, this volume moves beyond Cold War nuclear deterrence to show the many ways in which deterrence is applicable to contemporary security. It examines the possibility of applying deterrence theory and practice to space, to cyberspace, and against non-state actors. It also examines the role of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century and reaches surprising conclusions.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Regenerative and Sustainable Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez, 2022-01-27 Regenerative and Sustainable Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean explores how to build sustainable futures for Latin America and the Caribbean, presents recommendations for policy and decision-makers to shape sustainable futures, and reflects on the value of collective action for a region that deserves a better tomorrow.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Institutional Diversity and Political Economy Paul Dragos Aligica, 2014-02 This book discusses some of the most challenging ideas emerging out of the research program on institutional diversity associated with the 2009 co-recipient of 2009 Nobel Prize in economics, Elinor Ostrom, while outlining a set of new research directions and an original interpretation of the significance and future of this program.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: How Much Is Enough? Alain C. Enthoven, K. Wayne Smith, 2005-10-18 Originally published in 1971, and now published with a new foreword, this is a book of enduring value and lasting relevance. The authors detail the application, history, and controversies surrounding the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), used to evaluate military needs and to choose among alternatives for meeting those needs.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: On Escalation Herman Kahn, 2017-07-12 In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, Committee on Offensive Information Warfare, 2009-11-27 The United States is increasingly dependent on information and information technology for both civilian and military purposes, as are many other nations. Although there is a substantial literature on the potential impact of a cyberattack on the societal infrastructure of the United States, little has been written about the use of cyberattack as an instrument of U.S. policy. Cyberattacks-actions intended to damage adversary computer systems or networks-can be used for a variety of military purposes. But they also have application to certain missions of the intelligence community, such as covert action. They may be useful for certain domestic law enforcement purposes, and some analysts believe that they might be useful for certain private sector entities who are themselves under cyberattack. This report considers all of these applications from an integrated perspective that ties together technology, policy, legal, and ethical issues. Focusing on the use of cyberattack as an instrument of U.S. national policy, Technology, Policy, Law and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities explores important characteristics of cyberattack. It describes the current international and domestic legal structure as it might apply to cyberattack, and considers analogies to other domains of conflict to develop relevant insights. Of special interest to the military, intelligence, law enforcement, and homeland security communities, this report is also an essential point of departure for nongovernmental researchers interested in this rarely discussed topic.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Thinking about the Unthinkable in a Highly Proliferated World Clark Murdock, Thomas Karako, 2016-08-05 For decades, the United States has led the effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, both among potential adversaries and among its allies and partners. The current state of deterrence and of the nonproliferation regime, however, is open to many doubts. What happens if the nonproliferation regime should break down altogether? What happens if extended deterrence should fail, and allies no longer believe in the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella? What happens when the world has not 9 but 11, 15, 18, or even more nuclear powers? This study explores how such a world might function and what it would mean for our present conceptions of deterrence, for the place of the United States in the international order, and for international order itself.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Willpower Instinct Kelly McGonigal, 2011-12-29 Based on Stanford University psychologist Kelly McGonigal's wildly popular course The Science of Willpower, The Willpower Instinct is the first book to explain the science of self-control and how it can be harnessed to improve our health, happiness, and productivity. Informed by the latest research and combining cutting-edge insights from psychology, economics, neuroscience, and medicine, The Willpower Instinct explains exactly what willpower is, how it works, and why it matters. For example, readers will learn: • Willpower is a mind-body response, not a virtue. It is a biological function that can be improved through mindfulness, exercise, nutrition, and sleep. • Willpower is not an unlimited resource. Too much self-control can actually be bad for your health. • Temptation and stress hijack the brain's systems of self-control, but the brain can be trained for greater willpower • Guilt and shame over your setbacks lead to giving in again, but self-forgiveness and self-compassion boost self-control. • Giving up control is sometimes the only way to gain self-control. • Willpower failures are contagious—you can catch the desire to overspend or overeat from your friends­­—but you can also catch self-control from the right role models. In the groundbreaking tradition of Getting Things Done, The Willpower Instinct combines life-changing prescriptive advice and complementary exercises to help readers with goals ranging from losing weight to more patient parenting, less procrastination, better health, and greater productivity at work.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Polarity Management Barry Johnson, 1992 University level text. Some complex problems simply do not have solutions. The key to being an effective leader is being able to recognize and manage such problems. Polarity Management presents a unique model and set of principles that will challenge you to look at situations in new ways. Also included are exercises to strengthen your skills, and case studies to help you begin applying the model to your own unsolvable problems.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Responsibility of Intellectuals Noam Chomsky, 2017 Selected by Newsweek as one of 14 nonfiction books you'll want to read this fall Fifty years after it first appeared, one of Noam Chomsky's greatest essays will be published for the first time as a timely stand-alone book, with a new preface by the author As a nineteen-year-old undergraduate in 1947, Noam Chomsky was deeply affected by articles about the responsibility of intellectuals written by Dwight Macdonald, an editor of Partisan Review and then of Politics. Twenty years later, as the Vietnam War was escalating, Chomsky turned to the question himself, noting that intellectuals are in a position to expose the lies of governments and to analyze their often hidden intentions. Originally published in the New York Review of Books, Chomsky's essay eviscerated the hypocritical moralism of the past (such as when Woodrow Wilson set out to teach Latin Americans the art of good government) and exposed the shameful policies in Vietnam and the role of intellectuals in justifying it. Also included in this volume is the brilliant The Responsibility of Intellectuals Redux, written on the tenth anniversary of 9/11, which makes the case for using privilege to challenge the state. As relevant now as it was in 1967, The Responsibility of Intellectuals reminds us that privilege yields opportunity and opportunity confers responsibilities. All of us have choices, even in desperate times.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: In the Name of the Nation M. Laruelle, 2009-10-26 This book deconstructs the equation of nationalism with the extreme right in Russia. Nationalism now extends throughout all ofthe countryand can not be seen as a phenomenon confined to the margins of society. This study rejects the interpretation that understands Kremlin-backed patriotism as simply part of a fascist trend in Russia and as a rapprochement between the political authorities and the extreme right. A simplistic analysis of such a paradoxical phenomenon addresses neither the basic issue of social consensus nor that of the inherent relationship between national identity and citizenship.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: The Next 200 Years Herman Kahn, William Morle Brown, William Brown, Leon Martel, 1976 In a closely reasoned and carefully documented study, Herman Kahn and his associates at the Hudson Institute give us their expectations for what the next 200 years will bring.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: On Theories of Victory, Red and Blue Brad Roberts, 2020-05-10 While the United States and its allies put their military focus on the post-9/11 challenges of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, Russia and China put their military focus onto the United States and the risks of regional wars that they came to believe they might have to fight against the United States. Their first priority was to put their intellectual houses in order-that is, to adapt military thought and strategic planning to the new problem. The result is a set of ideas about how to bring the United States and its allies to a culminating point where they choose to no longer run the costs and risks of continued war. This is the red theory of victory. Beginning in the second presidential term of Obama administration, the U.S. military focus began to shift, driven by rising Russian and Chinese military assertiveness and outspoken opposition to the regional security orders on their peripheries. But U.S. military thought has been slow to catch up. As a recent bipartisan congressional commission concluded, the U.S. intellectual house is dangerously out of order for this new strategic problem. There is no Blue theory of victory. Such a theory should explain how the United States and its allies can strip away the confidence of leaders in Moscow and Beijing (and Pyongyang) in their escalation calculus-that is, that they will judge the costs too high, the benefits to low, and the risks incalculable. To develop, improve, and implement the needed new concepts requires a broad campaign of activities by the United States and full partnership with its allies.
  the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking: Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace Martin C. Libicki, 2012 The chances are growing that the United States will find itself in a crisis in cyberspace, with the escalation of tensions associated with a major cyberattack, suspicions that one has taken place, or fears that it might do so soon. The genesis for this work was the broader issue of how the Air Force should integrate kinetic and nonkinetic operations. Central to this process was careful consideration of how escalation options and risks should be treated, which, in turn, demanded a broader consideration across the entire crisis-management spectrum. Such crises can be managed by taking steps to reduce the incentives for other states to step into crisis, by controlling the narrative, understanding the stability parameters of the crises, and trying to manage escalation if conflicts arise from crises.--P. [4] of cover.
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Essential Mod’s compatibility with Fabric, Forge and NeoForge modloaders makes it simple to enhance your game with stunning shaders. …

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Wondering how to play Minecraft with friends? Joining friends in Minecraft is super easy with Essential Mod. Following these steps works on both …

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Essential mod supports the latest and most popular versions of Minecraft Java Edition (1.8, 1.12, 1.16 to 1.21) on Fabric, Forge and NeoForge modloaders. See all versions

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Download Essential Mod for enhanced Minecraft features, Minecraft hosting, character customization, and more!

Wiki - Shaders - Essential Mod
Essential Mod’s compatibility with Fabric, Forge and NeoForge modloaders makes it simple to enhance your game with stunning shaders. Learn how to install shaders alongside Essential …

Wiki - Play Together - Essential Mod
Wondering how to play Minecraft with friends? Joining friends in Minecraft is super easy with Essential Mod. Following these steps works on both Minecraft worlds and Minecraft servers. …

Wiki - Manual Install - Essential Mod
It’s possible to install Essential Mod without the installer or manually. However, if you are looking for the easiest way to install Essential Mod, visit Essential Installer. Learn how to manually …

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This guide explains how to install Optifine alongside Essential Mod, for an enhanced Minecraft experience.

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Essential Mod can fail to authenticate your connection due to various reasons. The guides below help you fix common issues. Learn how to troubleshoot and resolve Essential Mod Network …

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Unlock premium cosmetics and emotes with Essential Coins! Discover how to use coins to access exclusive wardrobe items and support your favorite Minecraft creators.

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Jun 4, 2025 · When Essential comes bundled with another mod, we will ask the user during the onboarding process whether they would like the full version of Essential with all features or the …

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The Essential Installer is the easiest way to install Essential Mod. Install to existing Minecraft installations, or create a new one with Essential Mod. If you’re looking for a manual install …