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| herman kahn scenario planning: The Future of Logistics Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2008-07-22 Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenario Planning in Organizations Thomas J. Chermack, 2011-02-14 Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenario Planning M. Lindgren, H. Bandhold, 2002-12-04 Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenario Planning - Revised and Updated Mats Lindgren, H. Bandhold, 2009-03-31 Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long-term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and case studies to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy and innovation. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development Ulf Pillkahn, 2008-07-14 Is my enterprise really prepared for future business? What can I do to become more competitive? Ulf Pillkahn's book is directed at all of those seeking answers to these questions: executives in strategic positions, business analysts, consultants, trend scouts, marketing and product managers and research engineers. The book presents the two most powerful tools for future planning: environmental analysis, based on the use of trends, as well as the development of visions of the future through the use of scenarios. While scenarios are generally regarded as a classical management tool, it is expected that the importance of trends will gain tremendously in the coming years. Pillkahn demonstrates how to build robust strategies by aligning the results of environmental and enterprise scenarios, thereby offering entirely new insights. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development convincingly illustrates why efficient observation of the environment of an enterprise is an absolutely essential factor for strategy development, and why strategy development only works if it is institutionalized as a permanent enterprise process. It also addresses the issue of what information is needed to keep both processes running. The book further describes how trends can be categorized, and offers advice on how to glean the essential information from the vast variety of trends. Information is provided on how scenarios are used as a holistic instrument for creating visions and pictures of the future, and how the results of trend research and scenario techniques find their way into entrepreneurial strategy development. An optimized strategy development process is also outlined. Practical examples and real-life pictures of the future round off Pillkahn's insightful discussion of future business planning. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: On Thermonuclear War Herman Kahn, 1966 |
| herman kahn scenario planning: How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning (Xsp) Jeremy Stapleton, 2020-08-15 Exploratory scenario planning (XSP) can help communities prepare for uncertainties posed by climate change, pandemics, automation, and other unprecedented twenty-first-century challenges. This manual is a comprehensive resource for anyone interested in using this emergent planning approach, which is effective at the local, regional, or organizational level. Through the XSP process, stakeholders envision and develop various potential futures (i.e., scenarios) and consider how to measure and prepare for each, rather than working toward a single shared vision for the future. Through instructive case studies, recommendations, sample workshop agendas, and more, this manual equips would-be practitioners with the background knowledge, procedural guidance, and practical strategies to implement this planning tool successfully. Readers will be prepared to facilitate--or even lead--an effective, impactful XSP process in their own settings. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Thinking the Future Clem Sunter, Mitch Ilbury, 2021-07-01 Do you know how to think about the future? All our decisions are about the future, whether it’s tomorrow, next year or the next decade, yet our choices are often undermined by desires, expectations and common mental mistakes – making assumptions, worrying about things we can’t control, missing signals because we’re distracted by the noise. But if you can learn how to think, you can learn how to look ahead. Isaac Newton said: ‘If I have seen further than others, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.’ In Thinking the Future, Clem Sunter and Mitch Ilbury teach us the futurist’s art of decision-making by reimagining seminal concepts from some of history’s greatest thinkers. They encourage foxy, flexible mindsets and reject the popular but misleading self-help tenet that you can decide your fate through the relentless pursuit of a single goal. An uncertain world demands a more dynamic approach. The point is not to forecast one outcome but to plot multiple scenarios of what could happen. Using scenario-planning techniques, we can all harness the power to work towards the future we want, avoid the ones we don’t, and prepare ourselves for the possible risks and opportunities no matter what transpires. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: A Review of Scenario Planning Literature Katja Kirsch, 2007-10 Scientific Essay from the year 2004 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 73%, University of the West of England, Bristol (Bristol Business School), course: Developing Business Knowledge, 31 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: Scenarios are increasingly popular within both companies and non-profit organisations. A wide variety of scenario characteristics and approaches has developed. In this paper a definition of the term scenario is given before exploring the different underlying assumptions and characteristics of, and approaches to scenario planning. It then goes on and identifies lacks in scenario theory to conclude with a future outlook of further research. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Foundations of Scenario Planning Thomas Chermack, 2017-02-03 Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: The Sixth Sense Kees van der Heijden, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Cairns, George Wright, 2009-08-13 Der etwas andere Leitfaden zum Thema Szenarios und organisatorisches Lernen. The Sixth Sense behandelt ausführlich die Veränderungen in den Unternehmenssystemen, den Strukturen und den Menschen. Szenarios werden hier explizit mit Strategie und Handeln verbunden. Innovativer Ansatz: Szenarios werden als Methode des organisatorischen Lernens behandelt. Hier lernen Manager, wie sie mit dem zunehmenden Wandel im Unternehmensumfeld zurechtkommen und wie sie mit Hilfe von Szenarios Denkfehler überwinden (durch Aufzeigen, dass die Zukunft keine Nachbildung der Vergangenheit ist). Praxisorientiert: Die Autoren zeigen anschaulich, wie man Szenariodenken in der Praxis anwendet. The Sixth Sense - der unverzichtbare Ratgeber für Manager und Consultants. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenarios Kees van der Heijden, 1996-11-07 This work deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course for their organization in the face of uncertainty. It looks at the principles involved and describes practical approaches to organizational strategy and development. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Thinking about the Unthinkable Herman Kahn, 1968 |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenario Thinking R. Bradley MacKay, Peter McKiernan, 2018-08-31 This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: The Future of Mobility Liisa Ecola, Johanna Zmud, Kun Gu, Peter Phleps, Irene Feige, 2015-07 Researchers developed two scenarios to envision the future of mobility in China in 2030. Economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions differentiate the scenarios. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the team sought to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: The Fortune Sellers William A. Sherden, 1997-10-28 An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future.-Harry Beckwith, author of Selling the Invisible No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to-and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists to investment advisers, prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future. In this piercing and provocative expose, business consultant and forecasting expert William Sherden casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, separating fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenarios for Success Bill Sharpe, Kees van der Heijden, 2008-07-31 Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios) into actions (strategy). Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep scenario planning in touch with modern realities. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Foundations of Scenario Planning Thomas J Chermack, 2017-02-03 Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Managing Emerging Risk Kevin D. Burton, 2017-11-15 From Main Street to Mumbai, Managing Emerging Risk: The Capstone of Preparedness considers the new global drivers behind threats and hazards facing all those tasked with protecting the public and private sector. The text delves into the global mindset of public and private sector emergency managers and presents a new risk landscape vastly different from the one existing ten years ago.The book begins by presenting a series of fictitious scenarios each resulting in mass destruction and fatalities. These are each followed by actual news stories that support the scenarios and demonstrate that the proposed events‘seemingly unthinkable have the potential to occur. Next, the author identifies two drivers in the practice of emergency management and general preparedness today that constitute our view of the future and the new face of risk. The first is the Disaster Halo Effectthe idea that modern threats exhibit more than one event. The second is the worldview of our nation as a Market State focused on the trading of goods, services, and ideas among the nation-states. The book also reviews the history of preparedness and discusses its relationship with large-scale threats, establishing that hindsight bias has hurt our ability to plan and respond to the unexpected.The chapters that follow explore what is needed to better cultivate, design, develop, and operate emerging management and preparedness thinking in the current environment. Each chapter begins with key terms and objectives and ends with thought-provoking questions. Introducing a new paradigm of thought that takes into account the chief influencers of global threats, the book arms emergency and business operations managers with the ammo needed to successfully confront emerging threats in the 21st century. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Get There Early Bob Johansen, 2007-08-20 These days, every leader struggles with a paradox: you can’t predict the future, but you have to be able to make sense of it to thrive. In the age of the Internet, everyone knows what’s new, but to succeed you have to be able to sort out what’s important, devise strategies based on your own point of view, and get there ahead of the crowd. Bob Johansen shares techniques the Institute for the Future has been refining for nearly forty years to help leaders navigate what, borrowing a term from the Army War College, he calls the VUCA world: a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. As the institute’s ten-year forecast makes clear, leaders now face fewer problems with neat solutions and more dilemmas: recurring, complex, messy, and puzzling situations. Get There Early lays out the institute’s three-step Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle that will allow readers to sense, make sense of, and win with dilemmas. Johansen offers specific techniques, ranging from storytelling to simulation gaming, as well as real-world examples to help readers turn the VUCA world on its head through creative use of vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. This book offers hope for leaders facing the constant tension—a dilemma in itself—between judging too soon and deciding too late. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Tourism Planning & Policy Lynn Minnaert, 2025-02-07 Local, regional and national governments play an important role in how tourism destinations are developed and managed. But where do politics come in? How do organisations like the United Nations fit into this picture? And how does policy making work at the international level? All these questions and more are covered in this essential new textbook, with examples from destinations all over the world. This concise and accessible introduction to tourism planning and policy making explores key themes around the strategic planning process, sustainability, ethics and inclusion in tourism, and future policy directions for tourism. Each chapter includes several snapshots and one case study to demonstrate how theory applies in practice, and ends with self-test questions to check your understanding. This text is essential reading for all college and university students studying tourism, hospitality, events, and leisure and recreation studies. Lynn Minnaert is the Dean of the School of Hospitality at the Metropolitan State University of Denver. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: A book of monsters David Ashford, 2024-06-11 This books traces the rise to prominence in the twentieth-century of a sub-genre of gothic fiction that is, emphatically, a horror of enlightenment rationality rather than gothic darkness, examining post-modern revisions of Modernist “Promethean” tropes in an eclectic range of gothic, fantasy and SF writing. Whether the subject be terror of London’s churches in the psychogeographical fiction of Iain Sinclair and Alan Moore, the Orcs in the linguistic fantasies of J.R.R. Tolkien, King Kong, killer-computers, or demon-children in post-war British science-fiction, A Book of Monsters offers illuminating perspectives on the darker recesses of the post-modern imagination, setting out a compelling, and comprehensive, overview on our contemporary unconscious. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: The Good Ancestor Roman Krznaric, 2021-08-31 Now in paperback: A call to save ourselves and our planet that gets to the root of the current crisis—society’s extreme short-sightedness |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Real Time Strategy Andreas Schühly, Frank Becker, Florian Klein, 2020-04-29 Combining classical scenario thinking (the gentle art of perception) with the analytical power of big data and artificial intelligence, Real Time Strategy presents the decision making of the future which enables decision makers to develop dynamic strategies, monitor their validity, and react faster. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Adapt Or Fail Ethan Patel, AI, 2025-02-16 In todayâs rapidly evolving business landscape, Adapt Or Fail emphasizes the critical need for organizational adaptation, strategic agility, and business resilience. This book argues that proactively embracing change and fostering a culture of innovation are essential for long-term survival and success. It explores how businesses can learn, unlearn, and reconfigure resources to meet new challenges. Intriguingly, the book highlights that businesses failing to adapt risk obsolescence, illustrating the high stakes of change management. The book systematically guides readers through adaptive management principles, environmental scanning, and scenario planning. It progresses from foundational concepts to strategies for fostering innovation and overcoming resistance to change. Adapt Or Fail distinguishes itself by focusing on practical application and actionable strategies, offering concrete tools and frameworks. It underscores the importance of adaptive leadership in influencing a company's response to change, providing a conversational approach to presenting information and making complex concepts accessible. Guidelines: - Use <p> for paragraphs. - Use <br> for line breaks within paragraphs. - Use <em> or <strong> tags for emphasis where appropriate. - Do not use <ul> or <ol> but use simple formatting like or and <br> for readability. - Ensure the HTML is clean, well-formatted, and suitable for an EPUB format. - Do not add any CSS or styling. - Do not add any text or elements outside the START-SUMMARY and END-SUMMARY markers. - Do not include any images or links. - Do not change the substance or meaning of the summary or any text within it except correct formatting when necessary. - Return only a JSON object with the HTML content as a string: {html: <your HTML content>} |
| herman kahn scenario planning: The Times and Temporalities of International Human Rights Law Kathryn McNeilly, Ben Warwick, 2022-02-24 This collection brings together a range of international contributors to stimulate discussions on time and international human rights law, a topic that has been given little attention to date. The book explores how time and its diverse forms can be understood to operate on, and in, this area of law; how time manifests in the theory and practice of human rights law internationally; and how specific areas of human rights can be understood via temporal analyses. A range of temporal ideas and their connection to this area of law are investigated. These include collective memory, ideas of past, present and future, emergency time, the times of environmental change, linearity and non-linearity, multiplicitous time, and the connections between time and space or materiality. Rather than a purely abstract or theoretical endeavour, this dedicated attention to the times and temporalities of international human rights law will assist in better understanding this law, its development, and its operation in the present. What emerges from the collection is a future – or, more precisely, futures – for time as a vehicle of analysis for those working within human rights law internationally. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Urban Survival Tactics Maxwell Chen, AI, 2025-01-13 Urban Survival Tactics presents a groundbreaking approach to disaster preparedness specifically tailored for city dwellers, addressing the unique challenges of surviving emergencies in densely populated environments. The book expertly bridges the gap between traditional survival knowledge and modern urban realities, offering practical solutions for scenarios ranging from natural disasters to infrastructure failures. The guide is systematically organized into three vital components: identifying and accessing urban resources, developing strategic emergency plans, and adapting survival skills for city environments. Drawing from real-world examples like Hurricane Sandy and the Tokyo earthquake, it provides evidence-based strategies for urban resource management, including innovative approaches to finding water sources, storing food, and establishing alternative power solutions. The book's strength lies in its practical application of research from multiple disciplines, including urban planning, emergency management, and behavioral psychology. What sets this guide apart is its comprehensive integration of modern technology with traditional survival techniques, making it particularly valuable for today's city residents. Each chapter features actionable checklists and scenario-based exercises, while addressing both individual preparedness and community resilience. The content maintains accessibility for general readers while offering sufficient depth for emergency management professionals, making it an invaluable resource for anyone seeking to enhance their urban survival capabilities. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Executive Development and Organizational Learning for Global Business Erdener Kaynak, Robert M Fulmer, J Bernard Keys, 2013-11-12 An essential reference book for you and your global organization, Executive Development and Organizational Learning for Global Business will guide you through the challenge of producing effective executives and masterminding learning organizations. In this cutting-edge overview, you'll share in the success stories of some of the most tried-and-true, top-selling authors in the world such as Peter Senge and Rosabeth Moss Kanter.Considered a “must-have” handbook for development managers, Executive Development and Organizational Learning for Global Business gives you a unique perspective on the major challenges you'll face when setting up your executive education program. Anyone creating a comprehensive game plan for a large global organization will want to be familiar with the informative practices in this book. In its concise and straightforward chapters, you'll read about: cross-cultural challenges of executive development tools and techniques for developing international executives experiential issues and action learning in global organizations anticipatory learning for global concerns Today, more than ever, piloting your global organization through a world of changing management systems and executive development programs can be overwhelming. But the unique perspectives you'll find in this time-saving collection will start you off right. So, whether you're a human resource development practitioner, a human resource executive, or an academic in human resource development, you'll profit from the bevy of intellectual insight and real-world experience that some of the world's most successful authorities have organized for you in the pages of Executive Development and Organizational Learning for Global Business. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash, 2022-04-15 In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Theory and Practice of Leadership Roger Gill, 2011-12-15 Praise for the first edition: ′At last a well-written, balanced and insightful British book on leadership. It is probable that every theory and assertion of consequence is commented upon. A real tour-de-force.′ - Emeritus Professor Gerry Randell, University of Bradford School of Management ′Theory and Practice of Leadership is an all encompassing, global review of examples and case studies that is both comprehensive and easily adaptable to almost any situation one would encounter in leading people.′ - Richard J. Conwell, Nova Southeastern University, Journal of Applied Management and Entrepreneurship If you are looking for a more holistic and critical take on the field of leadership, look no further! The second edition of this engaging and highly-respected text offers an exploration of leadership in a variety of contexts, both profit-orientated and non-profit. New to this edition: Refined to capture and delineate the essential theories more clearly, with broader coverage taking in the latest developments in areas such as change, politics, assessment and development of leadership, and multiple intelligences. Further development of a new integrative model of core leadership themes and practices. Abundant examples and illustrations, together with detailed explanations of how they apply in practice. A companion website with an Instructor′s Manual, PowerPoint slides, links to additional case studies and full-text journal articles. Theory and Practice of Leadership will prove a highly-stimulating read for undergraduate and postgraduate students of leadership and related subjects as well as management consultants and practising managers. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Future Babble Daniel Gardner, 2011-03-17 An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Trendspotting-The Basics Alf Rehn, Magnus Lindkvist, 2013-04-16 If you're tired of paying so-called experts to tell you about how to capitalize on trends, then why not figure out how to do it on your own? When you learn the basics of trendspotting, you've taken a key step towards understanding how these can affect your business, your life, and our world. Rather than presenting an exhausting catalogue of individual trends or methods of trend analysis, this guidebook quickly gives you the tools you need to get out there and start spotting, including basic terminology, fundamental principles and tools, and methodology. You will learn how to • identify micro-, macro-, mega-, and gigatrends; • avoid the pitfalls that can make you over-interpret what you see; • determine how trends can and will interact with each other; and • apply the methodologies that will work best for you. Trendspotting can be fun as well as profitable. Coming in contact with different cultures and ideas gives you the opportunity to celebrate the weirdness and beauty of the world; it offers you the chance to challenge your own worldview and preconceived notions. You too can go out into the wild world of trends, learning a variety of ways to live and work and love, and Trendspotting—The Basics can help you on the way. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Tourism Management Clare Inkson, Lynn Minnaert, 2012-03-22 Electronic Inspection Copy available for instructors here This exciting new text offers all students of Tourism a concise introduction to all the core topics of Tourism Management. Covering both key theory and practice it introduces students to general management issues across the whole tourism sector in an accessible and manageable way. Focusing particularly on the challenges of managing tourism in the 21st Century, it integrates the themes of sustainability, internationalism, technology and globalisation throughout to provide a thoroughly modern approach to the study of Tourism. Key features of this text include: - A specific focus on the management of tourism in the context of economic, social and environmental conditions, avoiding lengthy descriptions of the various components of the sector; - Three main integrated themes focusing on the demand for tourism, the supply of tourism, and the challenge of balancing of the two; - Coverage of how management techniques are developing in response to changing patterns of demand, emerging markets and destinations, globalisation, and the impacts of tourism; - Discussion points, examples and cases studies designed with the broadest cultural and international dimensions in mind for today's diverse student profile. Written specifically for those looking for core topic coverage in a manageable and concise format, this text will be essential reading for those looking for a truly contemporary introduction to Tourism Management. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Teaching about the Future P. Bishop, A. Hines, 2012-06-26 The faculty at the University of Houston's program in Futures Studies share their comprehensive, integrated approach to preparing foresight professionals and assisting others doing foresight projects. Provides an essential guide to developing classes on the future or even establishing whole degree programs. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Design for Tomorrow—Volume 2 Amaresh Chakrabarti, Ravi Poovaiah, Prasad Bokil, Vivek Kant, 2021-04-26 This book showcases cutting-edge research papers from the 8th International Conference on Research into Design (ICoRD 2021) written by eminent researchers from across the world on design processes, technologies, methods and tools, and their impact on innovation, for supporting design for a connected world. The theme of ICoRD‘21 has been “Design for Tomorrow”. The world as we know it in our times is increasingly becoming connected. In this interconnected world, design has to address new challenges of merging the cyber and the physical, the smart and the mundane, the technology and the human. As a result, there is an increasing need for strategizing and thinking about design for a better tomorrow. The theme for ICoRD’21 serves as a provocation for the design community to think about rapid changes in the near future to usher in a better tomorrow. The papers in this book explore these themes, and their key focus is design for tomorrow: how are products and their development be addressed for the immediate pressing needs within a connected world? The book will be of interest to researchers, professionals and entrepreneurs working in the areas on industrial design, manufacturing, consumer goods, and industrial management who are interested in the new and emerging methods and tools for design of new products, systems and services. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Scenarios Pierre Wack, 1985 |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Creating Desired Futures Michael Shamiyeh, 2012-12-13 Today’s society is making great leaps in its effort to obtain ever more and ever more specific know-how in various specialties, with the consequence that the structures of today’s companies are become increasingly complex. This in turn leads to problems at the points of interface, which calls for a comprehensive approach to solutions.Creating Desired Futures defines design a creative, analytical method to develop and explore alternative solutions to complex problems, and it shows that design is particularly well suited to the business world’s current need for innovative strategies. In twenty-four essays by designers, architects, and representatives of large companies such as Nike and Shell, the book shows how such a design-based approach can help define, assess, and solve problems for companies. It presents not only specific strategies from actual practice but also innovative approaches from the world of corporate consulting. Essays by researchers and teachers discuss theoretical aspects of the subject Design Thinking. Michael Shamiyeh is a practicing architect with his own firm (Shamiyeh Associates) and also founder and direction of the DOM (Design—Organisation—Media) Research Laboratory at the Kunstuniversität Linz. He works on the relevance of creative, analytical approaches in architectural thinking to solve complex problems in the area of Strategic Business Thinking and Innovation. Shamiyeh has received numerous awards, including the Innovation Prize (2008) of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Science and Research and well as the Future Award (ZuP, 2003) and the Award for Entrepreneurship (2000), both awarded by the Austrian government. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Third Millennium Thinking Saul Perlmutter, John Campbell, Robert MacCoun, 2024-03-26 Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, how to use scientists’ tricks of the trade to make the best decisions and solve the hardest problems in age of uncertainty and overwhelming information. In our deluge of information, it’s getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does the research cited in that article even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on the topic of climate change? In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small. Readers will learn: How to achieve a ground-level understanding of the facts of the modern world How to chart a course through a profusion of possibilities How to work together to take on the challenges we face today And much more Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’ insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Leading the Sustainable Business Transformation Julia Binder, Knut Haanaes, 2024-12-16 Complete playbook to plan, execute, and showcase corporate sustainability initiatives Based on extensive research conducted in the past several years at the International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland (IMD), Leading the Sustainable Business Transformation: A Playbook from IMD helps readers understand why sustainability matters, what it involves, how it fits with corporate strategy and how to implement it according to the specifics of their companies. This playbook emphasises both strategic and organisational work, delivering a framework to generate solid financial returns without depleting the world’s natural and social wealth. With detailed case studies and quotations from executives to provide context, this book explores topics including: How social and environmental sustainability initiatives sharply differ from the much-criticised Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) framework Barriers to change based on gaps in organisational capacity and how to overcome them Minimising risks, accelerating change and fostering innovation through AI powered by Big Data Managing performance and measuring impact through new KPIs that utilise relevant metrics Marketing strategies to showcase sustainability efforts in a way that resonates with consumers Filled with actionable strategies to navigate the intersection of global impact and financial success with precision and purpose, Leading the Sustainable Business Transformation is an essential read for executives and business leaders seeking to transform their organisations for the better. |
| herman kahn scenario planning: Working with Time in Qualitative Research Keri Facer, Johan Siebers, Bradon Smith, 2021-12-30 This collection brings together researchers and scholars from across the Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences who are actively exploring the many different ways in which time might be understood, imagined and used in qualitative research. Taken together, the contributions begin to trace the contours of what it might mean to work reflexively with time as an epistemologically constitutive element of research design. The book explores how the choice to work with pasts or futures, with speed or delay, with clocks or the time of the body, with utopias or failed futures (among other things) reframe how social and cultural phenomena are perceived and brought into existence in qualitative research. Drawing on fields as disparate as futures studies and history, literary analysis and urban design, utopian studies and science and technology studies, this collection serves as a resource for both new and experienced researchers in the humanities and social sciences. It is a critically important resource for beginning to explore the wide repertoire of theoretical and methodological tools for working with time in the research process. The book also draws attention to the way that institutional research timescapes – from university workload patterns to funding processes and project timescales – themselves shape how and what it is possible to know in and about the world. It concludes with a rousing manifesto for scholars and researchers, proposing 10 key attributes of temporally reflexive research. |
Read Herman by Jim Unger on GoComics
3 days ago · Dive into Herman, a comic strip by creator Jim Unger. Learn more about Herman, explore the archive, read extra content, and more!
Read about Herman and Jim Unger - GoComics
"Herman," the hilarious cartoon feature that appears in hundreds of newspapers worldwide, continues despite the passing of creator Jim Unger in June 2012. Unger left a legacy of more …
Herman by Jim Unger for May 4, 2025 - GoComics
May 4, 2025 · Read Herman—a comic strip by creator Jim Unger—for today, May 4, 2025, and check out other great comics, too!
Herman by Jim Unger for December 18, 2024 - GoComics
Dec 18, 2024 · Read Herman—a comic strip by creator Jim Unger—for today, December 18, 2024, and check out other great comics, too!
Read Long Story Short by Daniel Beyer on GoComics
Sep 5, 2022 · Dive into Long Story Short, a comic strip by creator Daniel Beyer. Learn more about Long Story Short, explore the archive, read extra content, and more!
Read Herman by Jim Unger on GoComics
3 days ago · Dive into Herman, a comic strip by creator Jim Unger. Learn more about Herman, explore the archive, read extra content, and more!
Read about Herman and Jim Unger - GoComics
"Herman," the hilarious cartoon feature that appears in hundreds of newspapers worldwide, continues despite the passing of creator Jim Unger in June 2012. Unger left a legacy of more …
Herman by Jim Unger for May 4, 2025 - GoComics
May 4, 2025 · Read Herman—a comic strip by creator Jim Unger—for today, May 4, 2025, and check out other great comics, too!
Herman by Jim Unger for December 18, 2024 - GoComics
Dec 18, 2024 · Read Herman—a comic strip by creator Jim Unger—for today, December 18, 2024, and check out other great comics, too!
Read Long Story Short by Daniel Beyer on GoComics
Sep 5, 2022 · Dive into Long Story Short, a comic strip by creator Daniel Beyer. Learn more about Long Story Short, explore the archive, read extra content, and more!
