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| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016-01-11 “Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016-01-11 “Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind Lars Svensson, 2016 'Leaning against the wind' (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Leaning Against the Wind and the Timing of Monetary Policy Mr.Itai Agur, Ms.Maria Demertzis, 2013-04-03 If monetary policy is to aim also at financial stability, how would it change? To analyze this question, this paper develops a general-form framework. Financial stability objectives are shown to make monetary policy more aggressive: in reaction to negative shocks, cuts are deeper but shorter-lived than otherwise. By keeping cuts brief, monetary policy tightens as soon as bank risk appetite heats up. Within this shorter time span, cuts must then be deeper than otherwise to also achieve standard objectives. Finally, we analyze how robust this result is to the presence of a bank regulatory tool, and provide a parameterized example. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques, Mr.R. G Gelos, Mr.Machiko Narita, Erlend Nier, 2020-07-07 This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Cost-benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind Trent Saunders, Peter Tulip, 2019 |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: IMF Research Bulletin, June 2016 International Monetary Fund. Research Dept., 2016-06-17 In the June 2016 issue of IMF Research Bulletin, Eugenio Cerutti interviews Lars E.O. Svensson. Lars, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, was a Visiting Scholar at the IMF. In the interview, he discusses monetary policy, financial stability, and life at the IMF. The Bulletin also features a listing of recent Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and key IMF publications. The table of contents from the latest issue of IMF Economic Review is also included. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy Eric Monnet, Miklos Vari, 2019-08-16 This paper explores what history can tell us about the interactions between macroprudential and monetary policy. Based on numerous historical documents, we show that liquidity ratios similar to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) were commonly used as monetary policy tools by central banks between the 1930s and 1980s. We build a model that rationalizes the mechanisms described by contemporary central bankers, in which an increase in the liquidity ratio has contractionary effects, because it reduces the quantity of assets banks can pledge as collateral. This effect, akin to quantity rationing, is more pronounced when excess reserves are scarce. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Progress and Confusion Olivier Blanchard, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff, Lawrence H. Summers, 2016-04-22 Leading economists consider the shape of future economic policy: will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or contend with the post-crisis “new normal”? What will economic policy look like once the global financial crisis is finally over? Will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or will it be forced to contend with a post-crisis “new normal”? Have we made progress in addressing these issues, or does confusion remain? In April of 2015, the International Monetary Fund gathered leading economists, both academics and policymakers, to address the shape of future macroeconomic policy. This book is the result, with prominent figures—including Ben Bernanke, John Taylor, and Paul Volcker—offering essays that address topics that range from the measurement of systemic risk to foreign exchange intervention. The chapters address whether we have entered a “new normal” of low growth, negative real rates, and deflationary pressures, with contributors taking opposing views; whether new financial regulation has stemmed systemic risk; the effectiveness of macro prudential tools; monetary policy, the choice of inflation targets, and the responsibilities of central banks; fiscal policy, stimulus, and debt stabilization; the volatility of capital flows; and the international monetary and financial system, including the role of international policy coordination. In light of these discussions, is there progress or confusion regarding the future of macroeconomic policy? In the final chapter, volume editor Olivier Blanchard answers: both. Many lessons have been learned; but, as the chapters of the book reveal, there is no clear agreement on several key issues. Contributors Viral V. Acharya, Anat R. Admati, Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Marco Buti, Ricardo J. Caballero, Agustín Carstens, Jaime Caruana, J. Bradford DeLong, Martin Feldstein, Vitor Gaspar, John Geanakoplos, Philipp Hildebrand, Gill Marcus, Maurice Obstfeld, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Rafael Portillo, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff, Robert E. Rubin, Lawrence H. Summers, Hyun Song Shin, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Paul Tucker, José Viñals, Paul A. Volcker |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Janet Louise Yellen, International Monetary Fund, 2015-08-28 The issue of using monetary policy for financial stability purposes is hotly contested. The crisis was a reminder that price stability is not sufficient for financial stability, financial crises are costly, and policy should aim to decrease the likelihood of crises, not only rely on dealing with their repercussions once they occur. It is clear that well-targeted prudential policies (including micro and macroprudential regulation and supervision) should be pursued actively to attenuate the buildup of financial risks. The question is whether monetary policy should be altered to contain financial stability risks. Should it lend a hand by temporarily raising interest rates more than warranted by price and output stability objectives? Keeping rates persistently higher is also possible, but more costly. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Asset Price Bubbles William Curt Hunter, George G. Kaufman, Michael Pomerleano, 2005 A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Handbook of Financial Stress Testing J. Doyne Farmer, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Til Schuermann, Thom Wetzer, 2022-04-14 Discover current uses and future development of stress tests, the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Douglas W. Arner, Emilios Avgouleas, Danny Busch, Steven L. Schwarcz, 2019-10-02 In late 2008, the world's financial system was teetering on the brink of systemic collapse. While the impacts of the global financial crisis would be felt immediately, at every level of the economy, it would also send years-long aftershocks through investment, banking and regulatory circles worldwide. More than a decade after the worst year of the global financial crisis, what has been learned from its harsh lessons? Are governments and regulators more prepared for another financial system failure that would significantly affect the real economy? What may be the potential triggers for such a collapse to occur in the future? Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: Ten Years after the Great Crash draws on some of the world's leading experts on financial stability and regulation to examine and critique the progress made since 2008 in addressing systemic risk. The book covers topics such as central banks and macroprudential policies; fintech; regulators' perspectives from the United States and the European Union; the logistical and incentive challenges that impede standardization and collection; clearing houses and systemic risk; optimal resolution and bail-in tools; and bank leverage, welfare and regulation. Drawing on experts across disciplines — including Howell Jackson, John Geanakoplos, Charles Goodhart, Anat Admati, Roberta Romano and Martin Hellwig — Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector is the definitive guide to understanding the global financial crisis, the safeguards being put into place to try to avoid similar crises in the future, and the limitations of those safeguards. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Leaning Against the Wind Luís Brandão Marques, Gaston Gelos, Machiko Narita, Erlend Nier, 2021 This paper takes a new approach to assess the benefits of using different policy tools -- macroprudential and monetary policies, foreign exchange interventions, and capital controls -- in response to changes in financial conditions. Starting from quantile regressions, we evaluate policies across the full distribution of future output growth and inflation using loss functions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses. These findings also hold when reacting to easing global financial conditions, while buying foreign exchange or tightening capital controls yields only small net benefits. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Central Banks and Supervisory Architecture in Europe Holzmann, Robert, Restoy, Fernando, 2022-10-07 COVID-19 and other recent crises have proved the need to review the state-of-play and implement robust institutional frameworks in the complex, heterogenous and decentralised European financial supervisory architecture, this insightful book outlines what can be done to innovate the current set-up in the face of pressing issues like climate change, BigTech and crypto assets. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Coordination Among Multiple Equilibria Mr.Itai Agur, 2018-11-02 The notion of a tradeoff between output and financial stabilization is based on monetary-macroprudential models with unique equilibria. Using a game theory setup, this paper shows that multiple equilibria lead to qualitatively different results. Monetary and macroprudential authorities have tools that impose externalities on each other's objectives. One of the tools (macroprudential) is coarse, while the other (monetary policy) is unconstrained. We find that this asymmetry always leads to multiple equilibria, and show that under economically relevant conditions the authorities prefer different equilibria. Giving the unconstrained authority a weight on helping the constrained authority (leaning against the wind) now has unexpected effects. The relation between this weight and the difficulty of coordinating is hump-shaped, and therefore a small degree of leaning worsens outcomes on both authorities' objectives. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy Tobias Adrian, Mr.Douglas Laxton, Mr.Maurice Obstfeld, 2018-04-13 Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Shocks and Capital Flows Mr. Gaston Gelos, Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2023-10-27 The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines Philippe Karam, Mikhail Pranovich, Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2021-10-22 We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database Zohair Alam, Mr.Adrian Alter, Jesse Eiseman, Mr.R. G Gelos, Mr.Heedon Kang, Mr.Machiko Narita, Erlend Nier, Naixi Wang, 2019-03-22 This paper introduces a new comprehensive database of macroprudential policies, which combines information from various sources and covers 134 countries from January 1990 to December 2016. Using these data, we first confirm that loan-targeted instruments have a significant impact on household credit, and a milder, dampening effect on consumption. Next, we exploit novel numerical information on loan-to-value (LTV) limits using a propensity-score-based method to address endogeneity concerns. The results point to economically significant and nonlinear effects, with a declining impact for larger tightening measures. Moreover, the initial LTV level appears to matter; when LTV limits are already tight, the effects of additional tightening on credit is dampened while those on consumption are strengthened. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Nordic Economic Policy Review 2020: Financial regulation and macroeconomic stability in the Nordics Calmfors, Lars, Englund, Peter, Rangvid, Jesper, Natvik, James Gisle, Svensson, Lars E.O., Juokivuolle, Esa, Ekholm, Karolina, 2020-06-15 How well designed are the financial regulations that have been imposed after the global financial crisis in 2008–09 and the subsequent euro crisis? Will the new bail-in rules work in a systemic crisis, or do we risk further costly bail-outs by governments? How does monetary policy influence household debt? Have macroprudential tools been well-calibrated? Answers to these questions are crucial for judging the risks that the current corona crisis might also trigger a new financial crisis. The 2020 issue of the Nordic Economic Policy Review consists of six papers, including an introduction by editors Lars Calmfors and Peter Englund. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries Mr.Marco Airaudo, Mr.Edward F. Buffie, Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016-03-08 We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Global Waves of Debt M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, Naotaka Sugawara, 2021-03-04 The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications Ms.Valerie Cerra, Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2017-11-16 All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: The ASEAN Way Ms.Ana Corbacho, Mr.Shanaka J Peiris, 2018-10-02 The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Evolution or Revolution? Olivier Blanchard, Lawrence H. Summers, 2019-04-16 Leading economists discuss post–financial crisis policy dilemmas, including the dangers of complacency in a period of relative stability. The Great Depression led to the Keynesian revolution and dramatic shifts in macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy. Similarly, the stagflation of the 1970s led to the adoption of the natural rate hypothesis and to a major reassessment of the role of macroeconomic policy. Should the financial crisis and the Great Recession lead to yet another major reassessment, to another intellectual revolution? Will it? If so, what form should it, or will it, take? These are the questions taken up in this book, in a series of contributions by policymakers and academics. The contributors discuss the complex role of the financial sector, the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policy, the limits of monetary policy to address financial stability, the need for fiscal policy to play a more active role in stabilization, and the relative roles of financial regulation and macroprudential tools. The general message is a warning against going back to precrisis ways—to narrow inflation targeting, little use of fiscal policy for stabilization, and insufficient financial regulation. Contributors David Aikman, Alan J. Auerbach, Ben S. Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Lael Brainard, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Marco Buti, Benoît Cœuré, Mario Draghi, Barry Eichengreen, Jason Furman, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrew G. Haldane, Philipp Hildebrand, Marc Hinterschweiger, Sujit Kapadia, Nellie Liang, Adam S. Posen, Raghuram Rajan, Valerie Ramey, Carmen Reinhart, Dani Rodrik, Robert E. Rubin, Jay C. Shambaugh, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Jeremy C. Stein, Lawrence H. Summers |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: The Role of Institutions In Achieving Financial Stability and Sustainable Economic Development In South Sudan Addis Ababa Othow Akongdit, 2019-10-04 South Sudan is currently facing a serious economic crisis occasioned by: i. the oil shutdown which began at the beginning of 2012; ii. the civil conflict which erupted in December 2013; iii. declining international crude oil prices which went down by almost 62% (from USD 104 per barrel in 2013 to USD 40 in 2016); iv. drastic decline in the daily oil production as a result of partial closure of Upper Nile oil fields and; v. total shutdown of Unity State oil fields as a result of the war. All these factors have a significant negative impact on the South Sudan's economy. On the other hand, South Sudan has abundant and mostly untapped natural resources. It has great agricultural potential given that the country is very fertile and blessed with land, water and mineral resource which are substantial in relation to the relatively small population of 10 million plus. Effective management and development of these resources will therefore offer the prospect of sustained strong economic growth. Hence, the key research questions for this study are: Why some countries experience sustained levels of steady economic growth much faster while others stagnate? What can to improve the role of economic and political institutions in economic performance? There is extensive evidence that institutions matter a great deal in determining the level of economic development of a country. They strongly affect the economic performance of countries and act in society at all levels by determining the frameworks in which economic exchange occurs. Many Economists have shown that differences in institutions, as deep determinants of economic growth, account for much of the differences in income and productivity per head observed between countries (Acemoglu et al., 2005 ). Institutions shape the policy and governance setting in a given country, which in turn characterize the rule of law, risk of expropriation, political stability and ease of doing business. This study ends by suggesting the most importing mechanisms to strengthen the political and economic institutions that will create public trust in the government and its institutions and lead to sustainable development and prosperity. With that in mind, the institutions should support the public and private sector, capability, social infrastructure, good governance, rules of laws in order to achieve sustainable economic growth and financial stability. In this context, the main objectives of this study is to analyze the economic and political structure in South Sudan to ensure its role in achieving sustainable Economic Development and to analyze the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in responding to economic shocks. It is also opted to examine the structural soundness of the South Sudan economy and the efficiency of its key institutions in addressing the challenges. In particular, the role of a strong and healthy financial sector in weathering shocks and sustaining growth. In light of the above, this study focuses on the greater role institutions have played in the economic development of several East Asian countries as well as Africa. Though, it is argued that the institutions can be weaker and ineffective simply because of administrative, institutional, ethnic, social and political challenges including poor enforcement of the rule of law, corruption, mismanagement, lack of strong civil society and political interference. However, the strength of an institution determines whether a country will be poor or wealthy, whether or not its people are free or oppressed and if its people will suffer from poverty or benefit from prosperity. Therefore, the main recommendations of this study can be summarized as follows: - developing effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels; - building a variety of healthy institutions that can accelerate and spearhead growth; - building strong political and governmental institutions that enhance the governance - reforming the institutions with an aim to move from situations of stagnation to rapid growth or a better development paths; The study embraces a multi-pronged methodology, pursuing a combination of relevant methods and approaches of data collection, including both primary and secondary information sources. This study is organized as follows: Chapter 1 discusses the institutions, financial stability and sustainable Economic Development, theoretical framework in which we explore in the empirical analysis. Chapter 2 presents the historical background of institutions in South Sudan Chapter 3 focuses on institutions and financial stability where we discuss the institutional policies and approach for financial stability as well as issues of globalization, transparency, accountability and its impact on financial stability. In chapter 4, I discuss institutions and sustainable economic growth. It focuses on fundamentals and strategies of sustainable economic development and the role of good governance and institutions in long-term economic growth. In chapter 5, we discuss the prospects of strong institutions, financial stability and sustainable Economic Development in South Sudan. It discusses how efficiency and soundness of South Sudan's key institutions can be extremely valuable in process of building a sustainable economic growth and what can South Sudan learn from others countries. The last chapter is the conclusions and recommendations of research. The major findings of this study are as follows: - Conflicts affect economic outcomes mainly through the destruction of human and physical capital, shifts in public spending and private investment, as well as the disruption of economic activities and social life. - Building effective, efficient and accountable institutions in fragile state like South Sudan can be problematic and challenging. Most importantly, good political and economic governance, based on transparency and accountability, should be the key for building a politically and economically viable state capable of articulating a common vision for national unity, and providing stability and dividends of peace to its aspiring citizens. - Strictly, from economic point of view, a political resolution of the current crisis is urgently needed in order for South Sudan to restore the confident of investors, put socio-economic development as one of its priorities and regain its place as the world's newest investment destination. - Social, political and economic stability in South Sudan will depend on core institutions performing their functions sufficiently well to manage public resources effectively and distribute them equitably |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interactions in a DSGE Model for Sweden Mr.Jiaqian Chen, Mr.Francesco Columba, 2016-03-23 We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to Sweden. Households face a ceiling on their loan-to-value ratio and must amortize their mortgages. The government grants mortgage interest payment deductions. Lending rates are affected by mortgage risk weights. We find that demand-side macroprudential measures are more effective in curbing household debt ratios than monetary policy, and they are less costly in terms of foregone consumption. A tighter macroprudential stance is also found to be welfare improving, by promoting lower consumption volatility in response to shocks, especially when using a combination of macroprudential instruments. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Monetary Policy Rules John B. Taylor, 2001-05-01 This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Financial Globalisation V. Anantha Nageswaran, Gulzar Natarajan, 2019-05-23 Examines the rise of financialisation globally, charting drawbacks and prescribing suggestions for a definitive overhaul of the structure. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Inequality, Leverage and Crises Mr.Michael Kumhof, Mr.Romain Ranciere, 2010-11-01 The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: The New European Central Bank: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead Thomas Beukers, Diane Fromage, Giorgio Monti, 2022-11-28 The European Central Bank (ECB) was first introduced in the European legal order on the occasion of the Treaty of Maastricht (1992). An official EU institution which is governed by EU law, the ECB of modern times differs vastly from its inception in 1998, which manifests in three main ways: monetary policy options, consideration of concerns other than low inflation in its policy-making, and its role in the Banking Union. This edited collection offers a retrospective and prospective account of the ECB, charting its evolution in detail with chapters written by leading academics and practitioners. Part 1 examines the substantive changes to monetary policy introduced by the ECB as a consequence of the financial and sovereign debt crisis by considering their legal basis. Part 2 moves beyond monetary policy by shifting to the new roles that the ECB has been called upon to play, notably in banking supervision and resolution. Parts 3 and 4 deal with transformations to inter- and intra-institutional relations, and take stock of these transformations, reflecting on the nature of the ECB of current times and which direction it could be heading in the future. The authors analyse the most salient and controversial elements of the ECB's crisis response, including unconventional monetary policy measures and the ECB's risk management strategy. Beyond monetary policy, the book further examines the role played by objectives such as financial stability and environmental sustainability, the ECB's relationship to the Lender of Last Resort function, as well as its new responsibilities in the Banking Union. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies Ioanna T. Kokores, 2023-10-04 This book explores the challenges faced by central banks in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the events that followed. It further emphasises the asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the Eurozone economies and among major advanced economies. The book also highlights the advances in the monetary policy debate towards an efficient resource allocation. The author argues that the canonical model of macroeconomic stabilization, which assigns the main burden of stabilization to monetary policy, is outdated primarily because of the absence of financial frictions. Further, she highlights the urgency of pushing risky activities outside the perimeters of regulation in face of rapidly evolving financial markets. The book provides an analytical framework in the context of intense globalisation and increased interdependence across economies, irrespective of the recent re-examining of supply-chains and trade relationships, as well as a policy framework thoroughly amended after the global financial crisis and the crises that followed it. Presenting policy proposals, the book discusses how policymakers must try to develop a set of policies that the public will have confidence in and take into account in forming expectations about future inflation and spending. It will be useful to central banking practitioners, monetary and fiscal policymakers, as well as students and scholars in economics and, in particular, financial economics. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Toward an Integrated Policy Framework International Monetary Fund, 2020-10-08 Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: The International Financial Crisis Asl? Demirg-Kunt, Douglas Darrell Evanoff, George G. Kaufman, 2011 The global financial crisis has caused massive upheavals worldwide. This volume analyzes whether financial principles seem to have shifted, and what that may mean for international financial markets and regulation. It discusses these and related issues. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Asset Bubbles Bradley Jones, 2015-02-11 In distilling a vast literature spanning the rational— irrational divide, this paper offers reflections on why asset bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informationally-efficient, more complete, and more heavily influenced by sophisticated (i.e. presumably rational) institutional investors. Candidate explanations for bubble persistence—such as limits to learning, frictional limits to arbitrage, and behavioral errors—seem unsatisfactory as they are inconsistent with the aforementioned trends impacting global capital markets. In lieu of the short-term nature of the asset owner—manager relationship, and the momentum bias inherent in financial benchmarks, I argue that the business risk of asset managers acts as strong motivation for institutional herding and ‘rational bubble-riding.’ Two key policy implications follow. First, procyclicality could intensify as institutional assets under management continue to grow. Second, remedial policies should extend beyond the standard suite of macroprudential and monetary measures to include time-invariant policies targeted at the cause (not just symptom) of the problem. Prominent among these should be reforms addressing principal-agent contract design and the implementation of financial benchmarks. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Grilled Leah Garcés, 2019-09-05 'An animal activist's journey to the other side' Joanna Lumley This is the story of what happens when we cross enemy lines to look for solutions. Leah Garcés has dedicated her career to fighting for the rights of the animals that end up on our plates. As the former US Executive Director of Compassion in World Farming and the current President of the non-profit group Mercy for Animals, she has led the fight against the sprawling chicken industry that raises billions of birds in cruel conditions – all to satisfy our appetite for meat. Grilled is Leah's story of working alongside the food and farming industry for animal welfare and ethical food. Instead of fighting and protesting and shaming – approaches that simply haven't worked previously – Garcés has instead tried to find common ground with producers. She has worked alongside owners of the megafarms, befriending them, having frank conversations with them, and ultimately encouraging change through dialogue and discussion. Leah is helping to directly improve the lives of millions of farm animals, and pushing alternatives such as plant-based substitutes and lab-grown meats to the top of the agenda, with some of the mega-farm conglomerates joining forces with her to explore these avenues. When she started her journey, Leah Garcés did not have much empathy to spare for the contract chicken farmer –until she actually met one and tried to understand the difficulties they faced. This is the story of giving in to discomfort for the sake of progress. It's a story of the power of human connection, and what happens when we practice empathy toward our enemies. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Macroprudential Policy International Monetary Fund, 2011-10-01 This paper provides the most comprehensive empirical study of the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments to date. Using data from 49 countries, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments in reducing systemic risk over time and across institutions and markets. The analysis suggests that many of the most frequently used instruments are effective in reducing pro-cyclicality and the effectiveness is sensitive to the type of shock facing the financial sector. Based on these findings, the paper identifies conditions under which macroprudential policy is most likely to be effective, as well as conditions under which it may have little impact. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries International Monetary Fund, 2015-10-23 Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs. |
| cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind: The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy John J Mearsheimer, Stephen M Walt, 2008-06-26 The Israel lobby is a loose coalition of right-wing individuals and organisations that actively works to shape U.S. foreign policy. Here, the authors claim that there is something deeply worrying about the Israel lobby's influence on U.S. foreign policy. |
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