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| business and economic forecasting: Economic and Business Forecasting John E. Silvia, Azhar Iqbal, Kaylyn Swankoski, Sarah Watt, Sam Bullard, 2014-03-10 Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the ten commandments for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications. |
| business and economic forecasting: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting Philip Hans Franses, 1998-10-15 The econometric analysis of economic and business time series is a major field of research and application. The last few decades have witnessed an increasing interest in both theoretical and empirical developments in constructing time series models and in their important application in forecasting. In Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting, Philip Franses examines recent developments in time series analysis. The early parts of the book focus on the typical features of time series data in business and economics. Part III is concerned with the discussion of some important concepts in time series analysis, the discussion focuses on the techniques which can be readily applied in practice. Parts IV-VIII suggest different modeling methods and model structures. Part IX extends the concepts in chapter three to multivariate time series. Part X examines common aspects across time series. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting for Economics and Business Gloria González-Rivera, 2016-12-05 For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting in Business and Economics C. W. J. Granger, 1989-04-28 Describes the major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This book focuses on the forecasting of economic data and covers a range of topics, including the description of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; nonstationary and nonlinear models; and more. |
| business and economic forecasting: Business Forecasting, Second Edition A. Reza Hoshmand, 2009-12-04 This book emphasizes the rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques in business. |
| business and economic forecasting: Economic Forecasting Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann, 2016-04-05 A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting Economic Time Series C. W. J. Granger, Paul Newbold, 2014-05-10 Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists. |
| business and economic forecasting: Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics Eduard Jan Bomhoff, 1994 This text summarizes the important new thinking on financial market forecasting and on the statistical modeling of non-stationary series in a clear and readable manner. The emphasis throughout is on real-life examples using data from a wide variety of countries and sources. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting: principles and practice Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos, 2018-05-08 Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly. |
| business and economic forecasting: Practical Business Forecasting Michael K. Evans, 2002-05-06 Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting. |
| business and economic forecasting: Business and Economic Forecasting, an Econometric Approach Milton H Spencer, 2021-09-09 This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant. |
| business and economic forecasting: Business Cycles Victor Zarnowitz, 1992-06-15 Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community. |
| business and economic forecasting: Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art Elia Xacapyr, 2016-09-16 An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy. |
| business and economic forecasting: Handbook of Economic Forecasting G. Elliott, C. W.J. Granger, A. G. Timmermann, 2006-07-14 Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'. |
| business and economic forecasting: The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry, 2011-07-08 Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles Michael P. Niemira, Philip A. Klein, 1994-03-31 Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus 12 little-known facts about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn. —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle. —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere. —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy. —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry, 1999 This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure. |
| business and economic forecasting: Business and Economic Forecasting Milton H. Spencer, Colin Clark, 1961 |
| business and economic forecasting: Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis G.I. Treyz, 2013-11-11 Regional economic models are the key to predicting the effects of transportation, economic development, energy, fiscal and environmental policies. Despite this, the principal regional economic policy analysis model used throughout the United States by government agencies, universities, and the private sector has not been presented in a book until now. The approach to building, understanding and using regional models presented in Regional Economic Models: A Systematic Approach to Forecasting and Policy Analysis is progressive. It begins with the simplest possible models and concludes with a full presentation of the leading model used by policy makers today. The full details are presented along with facilitating software, which is made available so that the reader can build a prototype model for any state or country and can perform policy simulations with full operational models for a sample area. Policy studies are discussed that have been carried out with the model, as well as the range of ways in which policies can be tested through policy simulations. The necessary background is developed for understanding the ways in which models can be used to improve the basis upon which policies are evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the predicted effects to the model chosen for the analysis. The presentation is multifaceted and includes equations, diagrams and numerical examples. The professional literature is integrated with introductory materials to produce the first comprehensive book on regional modeling that extends from economic base models to modeling advances that are currently being published in economic journals. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting Economic Time Series Michael Clements, David F. Hendry, 1998-10-08 This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting David Hendry, Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements, 2019-06-11 Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast. |
| business and economic forecasting: Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods Eric Ghysels, Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018 Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting. |
| business and economic forecasting: Advances in Economic Forecasting Matthew L. Higgins, 2011 The book's contributors assess the performance of economic forecasting methods, argue that data can be better exploited through model and forecast combination, and advocate for models that are adaptive and perform well in the presence of nonlinearity and structural change. |
| business and economic forecasting: Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data Peter Fuleky, 2019-11-28 This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics. |
| business and economic forecasting: Business Cycles Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999-04-12 Table of Contents |
| business and economic forecasting: Business and Economic Forecasting Milton H Spencer, Colin G Clark, Peter W Hoguet, 2012-03-01 Edited By Lloyd G. Reynolds. The Irwin Series In Economics. |
| business and economic forecasting: Introductory Business and Economic Forecasting Newbold, Bos, 1993-01-01 |
| business and economic forecasting: Business Forecasting Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo, 2016-01-05 A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes. |
| business and economic forecasting: Macroeconomic Forecasting Robert Evans, 2002-01-22 Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists. |
| business and economic forecasting: Ahead of the Curve Joseph H. Ellis, 2005-10-11 Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst. |
| business and economic forecasting: The Map and the Territory Alan Greenspan, 2013-10-22 Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state. |
| business and economic forecasting: Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis John Guerard, 2013-01-03 Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on earnings per share (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction. |
| business and economic forecasting: Forecasting in Business and Economics C. W. J. Granger, 2014-05-10 Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful. |
| business and economic forecasting: Data Science for Economics and Finance Sergio Consoli, Diego Reforgiato Recupero, Michaela Saisana, 2021-06-09 This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications. |
| business and economic forecasting: Prediction, Projection and Forecasting Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas, 2012-12-16 We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict. |
| business and economic forecasting: World Market Price of Oil Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev, 2019-04-10 This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations. |
| business and economic forecasting: Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists Maximo Camacho, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Pilar Poncela, 2013-11-01 Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time. |
| business and economic forecasting: Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael D. Geurts, 2006-02-17 Aims to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. The topics in this title include: sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, and more. |
BUSINESS | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BUSINESS definition: 1. the activity of buying and selling goods and services: 2. a particular company that buys and…. Learn more.
VENTURE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
VENTURE definition: 1. a new activity, usually in business, that involves risk or uncertainty: 2. to risk going…. Learn more.
ENTERPRISE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTERPRISE definition: 1. an organization, especially a business, or a difficult and important plan, especially one that…. Learn more.
INCUMBENT | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
INCUMBENT definition: 1. officially having the named position: 2. to be necessary for someone: 3. the person who has or…. Learn more.
CULTIVATE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
CULTIVATE definition: 1. to prepare land and grow crops on it, or to grow a particular crop: 2. to try to develop and…. Learn more.
ENTREPRENEURIAL | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTREPRENEURIAL definition: 1. relating to someone who starts their own business or is good at seeing new opportunities to make…. Learn more.
LEVERAGE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
LEVERAGE definition: 1. the action or advantage of using a lever: 2. power to influence people and get the results you…. Learn more.
AD HOC | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
AD HOC definition: 1. made or happening only for a particular purpose or need, not planned before it happens: 2. made…. Learn more.
EQUITY | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
EQUITY definition: 1. the value of a company, divided into many equal parts owned by the shareholders, or one of the…. Learn more.
ENTREPRENEUR | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTREPRENEUR definition: 1. someone who starts their own business, especially when this involves seeing a new opportunity…. Learn more.
BUSINESS | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BUSINESS definition: 1. the activity of buying and selling goods and services: 2. a particular company that buys and…. Learn more.
VENTURE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
VENTURE definition: 1. a new activity, usually in business, that involves risk or uncertainty: 2. to risk going…. Learn more.
ENTERPRISE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTERPRISE definition: 1. an organization, especially a business, or a difficult and important plan, especially one that…. Learn more.
INCUMBENT | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
INCUMBENT definition: 1. officially having the named position: 2. to be necessary for someone: 3. the person who has or…. Learn more.
CULTIVATE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
CULTIVATE definition: 1. to prepare land and grow crops on it, or to grow a particular crop: 2. to try to develop and…. Learn more.
ENTREPRENEURIAL | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTREPRENEURIAL definition: 1. relating to someone who starts their own business or is good at seeing new opportunities to make…. Learn more.
LEVERAGE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
LEVERAGE definition: 1. the action or advantage of using a lever: 2. power to influence people and get the results you…. Learn more.
AD HOC | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
AD HOC definition: 1. made or happening only for a particular purpose or need, not planned before it happens: 2. made…. Learn more.
EQUITY | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
EQUITY definition: 1. the value of a company, divided into many equal parts owned by the shareholders, or one of the…. Learn more.
ENTREPRENEUR | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
ENTREPRENEUR definition: 1. someone who starts their own business, especially when this involves seeing a new opportunity…. Learn more.
